Championship week is upon us. Let’s look at how the last four teams in the hunt for the Cotton Bowl stack up in this week’s Group of Five Power Rankings.
At the start of each season, 60 Group of Five programs start with unblemished records and varying degrees of boundless potential. Any one of those five dozen teams could ostensibly run the table, snatch their conference title, and claim a spot in the New Year’s Six.
Of course, as the season progresses the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Because a league championship is a prerequisite to earn the honor of being named the top Group of Five team by the College Football Playoff selection committee, teams fall by the wayside as they collapse out of their conference races.
By the start of December, only 10 teams still have any shot. And after a dozen regular-season games, those chances have varying degrees of realism. This year two conferences are already eliminated completely before the final games are played. UAB and FAU can walk away with the Conference USA crown and their 10th win of the season, but with three losses neither is going to get selected by the committee ahead other contenders.
The MAC is in even worse shape. With all of their teams sporting multiple losses by October, the conference championship in Detroit will be played between 8-4 Central Michigan and the 7-5 Miami RedHawks. Both are even less attractive prospects for a major postseason berth than either of the Conference USA finalists.
That leaves three Group of Five conferences whose teams have any chance of landing the lucrative spot in the Cotton Bowl. Even then, not all chances are created equal. Despite two wins over Power Five opponents, 9-3 Hawaii has no chance of landing in the big show. The same goes for Louisiana, a 10-win team without a statement win over a Power Five opponent.
Out of the 10 Group of Five division winners, then, only four are really still alive for a trip to North Texas at the end of the year. Let’s take a look at the case for each in the last edition of the Group of Five Power Rankings before championship games take place and Selection Sunday unfolds.