Clemson football: What if Trevor Lawrence sits out the 2020 season?

Many consider Clemson football’s Trevor Lawrence to be the most talented quarterback of his generation. What would the impact be if he sits out next fall?

Clemson football’s Trevor Lawrence is a surefire bet to be the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick… in April 2021. After two seasons of lighting the college football world on fire, does the Tiger star have anything left to prove at his current level?

Since he is not allowed to declare for the NFL Draft until the spring of 2021, after his true junior season at Clemson, Lawrence is faced with a decision about whether playing another year of college ball is worth it. The 20-year-old is a bona fide star and has completed 67 percent of his throws for 6,452 yards, 64 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Oh, and he has a national championship ring to show for it.

If Lawrence sits out his junior year, what would the impact be on college football?

Just a few seasons ago, college football stars began sitting out bowl games to prepare for the NFL Draft. It could be an unintended consequence of expanding the College Football Playoff and creating a larger margin of disappointment for top-tier teams who miss out on the top four. It could be just correlation, not causation, though.

In addition, the NCAA faces pressure from new legislation in the state of California that may allow college athletes to profit from their image and likeness. When coming into effect in a few years, measures like this could end the status of amateur athletes and the NCAA as we know it.

There’s a real possibility that a scenario in which Lawrence sitting out an entire college football season could increase demand for NFL Developmental League. Think of an NBA G-League equivalent, or a AAA farm team comparison for baseball.

Sure, there are small-scale, less considered options such as the rebooted XFL or the fledgling Pacific Pro League, which plans to start games in July 2020 with an eye toward young players skipping the NCAA football route.

In this hypothetical situation, more star players could decide to start foregoing the “amateur” status of being a college athlete and risking injury before a big NFL payday. While large insurance policies do exist, would it be enough to convince a player to not prepare for the pros elsewhere?

Arizona Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray, after becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, signed a four-year contract with a $35 million paycheck. If NFL rules continue that prohibit a player from becoming draft-eligible within three years of graduating high school, an NFL-affiliated minor league could gradually become a replacement of college football.

In the near future, fans outside of the largest U.S. metro areas might be flocking to games featuring a Birmingham, Ala.-based team against one from Memphis or teams from Toledo and Columbus. Players from these youth-oriented squads could get called up to the NFL (as part of the corresponding affiliate team) when a key injury takes place.

If Lawrence does indeed decide to sit out his junior season in 2020, competition in the form of an NFL minor league could become a sobering reality for the NCAA.