Houston Football: Will Dana Holgorsen make Year 2 leap?

How will Houston football fare in 2020?

With the Pac-12’s decision to go to a conference-only schedule, Houston lost its only opportunity of the season to take on a Power Five opponent. Should a Selection Sunday actually transpire this year, the College Football Playoff selection committee will almost certainly forgive the lack of Washington State on the schedule if the Cougars otherwise run the table.

Home games against Rice and North Texas and a trip to Provo to take on BYU comprise the other non-conference contests on Houston’s slate this year. All three are winnable matchups for a group hungry to return at the very least to bowl eligibility.

Working against Houston is the fact that they have to go on the road to face all four of their toughest tests in divisional play. They head to Memphis in September, Navy in October, and both Cincinnati and SMU in November. UCF also sits on the schedule in interdivisional play, yet another challenge that could be hard to overcome.

What’s next for Houston?

The 2020 season, as of July 16, is scheduled to begin with a home date against crosstown rival Rice at TDECU Stadium. Houston has a five-game winning streak going in this series, and has the advantage of taking on an Owls squad that finished with one of the worst offenses of 2019. While Rice, like Houston, boasts one of the most experienced defenses in all of college football this year, their offense is likely to betray them against the Cougars.

Prediction: 6-5 (4-4 AAC)

Houston should have no trouble in its first two non-conference tests, though the road trip to BYU presents a tough test. That game could technically go either way, but to be conservative let’s assume the hosts win the Battle of the Cougars in Provo.

That means Houston needs to defeat all three of the AAC opponents on their schedule against which they will be favored: Tulane, South Florida, and Tulsa, all three of which the Cougars play at home. To reach bowl eligibility, they either need to win that game against BYU or steal at least one victory as an underdog in conference play.

Road tests against Memphis, Navy, Cincinnati, and SMU will all likely kick off with Houston as the underdog. The same is true of their home showdown against UCF. The guess here is that they surprise either Navy or SMU on the road to reach six wins. It isn’t conference contention, but for the Houston fan base it will at least be an upward trend in a weird year.