College Football Upset Alert, Week 16: Championship Weekend edition

Big 12: Oklahoma (-5.5) vs. Iowa State

We already know Iowa State can beat Oklahoma. We know Iowa State can win with defense. We know Oklahoma can score with just about anyone. We also know that both teams are prone to head scratching losses.

Oklahoma has improved since the first meeting. Spencer Rattler has looked more and more like the quarterback we all expected at the beginning of the season. The counterpoint to that is Oklahoma hasn’t really beat anyone good in convincing fashion other than Oklahoma State since that game. They barely defeated Texas in a game in which they blew a 14 point lead in 3:30 minutes and have wins over TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas.

Iowa State won a slugfest back in early October. The Cyclones need to once again keep the game close throughout and hold Oklahoma on third down.

In that October showdown, Iowa State held Oklahoma to 4-of-13 on third down. Ideally, those third downs are in Oklahoma territory and the Sooners are forced to punt. The one thing they’ll need to do differently is be better on fourth down, where the Sooners were 3-3.

Would this be an upset? Not at all. It’ll be tough to beat Oklahoma twice in one season, but this is the most vulnerable Oklahoma has been in the Big 12 title game in years. Don’t be surprised if the Cyclones walk away with their first conference title since 1912 when they defeated teams such as Simpson College, Morningside and Drake.