How much does recruiting impact who makes the College Football Playoff?

How recruiting figures can help project 2021 and beyond

After nearly 5000 words spent looking back at past College Football Playoff qualifiers, the big question for this final segment is what this can tell us about the potential qualifiers for 2021 — and whether we can expect these results to concentrate further among a shrinking contingent of elite teams over the years to come.

Before we get deeper into what 2021 might hold, though, a closer look at top-six teams can give us a better understanding about the types of teams that reach the semifinals.

As denoted by the green highlighting in the above table, the average five-year recruiting score for College Football Playoff qualifiers is situated 8.14 points above the median. Breaking that down further, we can also see a clear gap between the haves and the have-nots that actually make the final four.

Champions over the first six years of the Playoff averaged 9.05 points above the median. With either Ohio State or Alabama — the top two teams in the five-year rolling average against the median in 2020 — due to win it all this year, that figure will rise to either 9.15 points (with a Crimson Tide win) or 9.17 points (if the Buckeyes prevail).

Runners-up in the final average 8.62 points above the median over five years. Semifinalists, by contrast, average 7.31 points over the rolling median. Teams that make the championship game average 8.98 points above that center point in the FBS, a full 1.67 points higher than losing semifinalists.

As described throughout the preceding slides, even teams that recruit as well as the outliers in the College Football Playoff’s (admittedly short) history are dwindling in number. Including the upcoming 2021 recruiting class that is not entirely finalized at this point, the number of programs recruiting at or above each threshold have gradually dropped over time.

What does this mean for next season? That last column is where we want to direct our attention. If we consider 7.31 points above median as the qualifying benchmark for reaching the College Football Playoff, only five teams really have a shot of making the field. The list will hardly surprise college football fans, as it includes all four of the teams that have previously won the title — Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU — along with previous finalist Georgia.

If we expand out the range to include teams that recruit at least six points higher than the five-year median, there are 15 teams worth considering as potential champions next season. Oregon, with a recruiting mark that currently rests 5.99 points above the mark, serves as the benchmark from which to think about next year.

Looking at this list, there are four clear tiers of teams. The usual suspects once again look as though they should dominate the field. Even with a field that is increasingly consolidating power at the top of the sport, we can anticipate that two or three teams from the green sections and either one or two teams from the yellow sections will make the field.

What does that look like on paper? We will likely see Alabama or Georgia in as the SEC champion, Clemson once again making the field out of an ACC that will no longer include Notre Dame in the title hunt. Ohio State also has a spectacular shot of returning in one of the four spots.

What would that mean in terms of a debate heading into Selection Sunday next year? If defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma (or possibly Texas under new head coach Steve Sarkisian) run the table, their recruiting marks put them right in the running. USC will also have a shot (or possibly Oregon if they go undefeated and win the Pac-12 again).

That stands to be the biggest debate, either Oregon or USC as the Pac-12 champion on one side and Texas or Oklahoma as the Big 12 champion on the other side. If Notre Dame goes 11-1 or  better, they too will enter the discussion.

In other words, while the consolidation of power that we are seeing within college football as a result of the College Football Playoff cannot entirely be ascribed to recruiting rankings, how teams fare on the recruiting trail against the median over a five-year period can offer a revealing glimpse into which teams have a legitimate shot of making the four-team field in any given season.

Recruiting rankings might be an inexact science when considering individual cases. On the aggregate, the experts hit the mark on their assessments more often than not. When considering those recruiting patterns over time, and especially when considering them against the median FBS team from year to year, we can start to see which programs have the best chance of rise up as the next Clemson — or which might have a precipitous fall ahead of them if recruiting levels dip, as happened at Florida State beginning in Jimbo Fisher’s final years in Tallahassee.

Like any predictive measure, recruiting rankings are hardly perfect. They are still incredibly transparent about who does and does not have a realistic shot of breaking into the exclusive club of College Football Playoff qualifiers.