Thoughts around the nation: Can new alliance work in College Football?

Less than a week until college football officially kicks off in one of the most anticipated seasons ever.

What a difference a year makes.

365 days ago, week zero wasn’t a thing because of Covid. The Pac-12, Big Ten, MAC, and Mountain West had canceled their 2020 seasons, as well as individual teams like UConn, Old Dominion, and New Mexico State opting out. Notre Dame was a member of the ACC.

Fast forward to today, and we’re less than a week from week zero, a week that features a Pac-12 team against a Mountain West team, UConn, and a Big Ten conference game.

Life is good in college football once again.

It’s been a long road to get here and there’s no doubt obstacles will appear. Most conferences have adopted a forfeit rule in case of a Covid outbreak, which basically says a forfeiting team will be credited with a loss, and the opposing team will be awarded a win and be treated as if the game had been played. That might throw an interesting wrench into the season, and we’ll get to that.

-With that said, welcome to the first Thoughts Around The Nation of 2021. I want to start on a quick personal note: I’d like to dedicate 2021 TATN series to my grandfather, who passed away back in March.

He was the first person to introduce me to college football and with a little help from Lee Corso, gave me one of my biggest loves in life, the sport of college football.

I’ll miss his calls on Saturday mornings to talk about Clemson, Notre Dame, and Penn State which were his favorite teams. College football Saturdays are always great, but there’s definitely going to be something missing for me this year.

Can Scott Frost save his job with Nebraska?

-On to football. This Nebraska football fiasco sure is something. The Huskers are under investigation for using analysts as coaches during practices and games, something that everyone knows is happening all over the place.

Seemingly, these reports have come from the inside since there are reported to be photos and videos of the events in question. As if the Scott Frost era in Nebraska hasn’t been sideways enough, now an NCAA investigation.

The first thing that comes to my mind is something I’ve seen asked by a lot of people: is Nebraska trying to fire Frost with cause? That would save Nebraska a $20 million buyout.

With former AD Bill Moos (the man who hired Frost) retired and Trev Alberts in, the heat is on Frost more than ever. Bo Pelini was fired for nine wins a year, but a 12-20 record in three years and no signs of making a big jump in sight, 2021 is a make-or-break year. I have the Huskers winning six games. Is that really enough?

Will this planned BIG, ACC, Pac-12 Alliance work?

-The moves of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC has been talked about to death, so I’ll make this quick: I highly doubt the SEC will become some major 32 team conference that secedes from the NCAA and becomes a “minor league NFL” as some have thrown out there.

Over the last few months, everyone from Clemson and Florida State to Ohio State and Michigan to USC have been linked to the SEC. I could see a few schools inquiring, but nothing to the level of what people are talking about.

There’s more realignment to come and there’s no debating that. The remaining eight of the Big 12 have to do something, whether it’s bringing in new programs or going elsewhere.

How will the Group of Five be affected? Who’s this realignment version of TCU and Utah that get called up to the Power Five level? It’s going to be an interesting watch, but it certainly looks like the rich will keep getting richer.

On a side note, is Vanderbilt not the most fortunate team in all of college athletics?

-Speaking of the SEC becoming the most powerful entity in college athletics, the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 have something to say about that.

It’s been reported that those three leagues will form an alliance to combat the SEC’s gain in power. It’s still unclear what that alliance even means. Scheduling, philosophy, and general governance were three things an anonymous athletic director suggested could be the main point.

So what’s the best way for this alliance to work?

There isn’t one.

What do these three conferences really hope to accomplish? Will each team be mandated to play a non-conference game against a team from the other conference? If so, that’s good. We could definitely use some Penn State/Pitt or USC/Clemson matchups in our lives, but what else really comes of it?

It could have ramifications on the Group of Five also. Does this alliance allow for teams to play Group of Five opponents? That would mean even more rivalries down the drain: Colorado/Colorado State and BYU/Utah would be placed in danger. This would further increase the gap between the Group of Five and the Power Five.

Are we supposed to believe commissioners and AD’s will band together and vote something down that benefits them just because it might not benefit other members of the alliance as a whole? You can see that problem coming from a mile away.

Would this alliance result in more money? Possible, but how? If the three conferences pooled money together, it seems like the top teams would lose a bit of money while the bottom would gain.

Which is why the Pac-12 would be the biggest winners of this deal.

The Pac-12 made about $37 million more than the ACC in 2020 but individual schools only made about $600,000 more. Now imagine how much more they would make if the tv deal was better. Specifically, the Pac-12 Network. The network is missing on several cable outlets, most notably AT&T U-Verse and DirecTV. The Pac-12 wanted to retain sports for its own channel, but now pays the price with its availability.

How bad is Pac-12 exposure compared to others?  Christian McCaffrey was told a Heisman voter didn’t vote for him because he didn’t watch any Stanford football games because they were on too late.

Whether it’s time or access, the Pac-12 needs to greatly expand its footprint by making games not only more accessible but maybe even earlier. No pressure on new Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff at all.

COVID-19 and the College Football Playoff

-I mentioned the new Covid forfeit rules for 2021 and said they could pose an interesting twist on the upcoming season. What if it has a direct impact on the College Football Playoff?

Take a walk down the hypothetical path for a minute. Insert your own teams if you’d like: Clemson loses to Georgia in week one. Covid strikes against, say, NC State. Clemson then has to forfeit the game.  As a result, NC State wins the Coastal and plays in the ACC Championship game where they end up winning. NC State is now 12-1 ACC Champions. Clemson is 10-2 but has only lost one “real” game. Which of those two teams does the committee choose?

It’s scenarios like that that may be unlikely but are definitely plausible. We’ve already seen Covid give us a conference champion that didn’t even win their division in 2020 when Oregon won the Pac-12.

Luckily the conference was out of the Playoff race and it didn’t make a huge difference. We also saw the Big Ten literally make up rules as they go to get Ohio State to qualify for that conference title game.

This could present some really interesting situations, especially if teams have issues for multiple weeks. How strange would it be for someone to look back with no context and just see that Kansas beat Oklahoma in 2021?

-Next week, we’ll be back with predictions and finally more on-field talk.

We made it. Talking season is over. It’s time for some football.