College Football 2021: Top 3 teams on upset alert in Week 6

2. UCF (vs. East Carolina)

It’s been a disappointing season in Orlando, to say the least. UCF came into the season expecting a New Year’s Six run under new head coach Gus Malzahn. Instead, the Knights enter this game as a .500 team and on a two-game losing streak, only their second multi-week losing streak since 2016.

East Carolina has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. At 3-2, the Pirates were a four points away from defeating South Carolina in week two. Suddenly, it looks like a team that wasn’t projected to do much has a very reasonable path to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014.

If East Carolina wins this game, it’ll be at the hands — well, feet — of running back Keaton Mitchell.

To call Mitchell explosive would be one of the biggest understatements of the season. Mitchell is averaging an eye-popping 9.6 yards per carry en route to being a top-10 rusher in the nation. As Mitchell goes, so do the Pirates. Mitchell didn’t play much against App State, but on the four carries he did get, he ran for 50 yards. He’s gotten better pretty much all season, including last week’s 222-yard, two-touchdown performance.

All the attention Mitchell requires will take some eyes off of quarterback Holton Ahlers, who’s fourth in the AAC in passing yards. He’s thrown five picks this year, which is something you simply cannot do against a powerful UCF offense.

The East Carolina defense is going to need to force turnovers of their own to put the team in a better spot. UCF can beat you through the air or on the ground and might be the most complete team the Pirates have faced yet. But the good news is that East Carolina has 12 takeaways on the season.

The way UCF has played on defense leaves much to be desired at points. There just might be too much big-play potential in both the East Carolina run and pass game for UCF to watch effectively. Expect this game to be close at bare minimum.