College Football 2021: 3 teams that will be on upset alert in Week 9
2. Ohio State (vs. Penn State)
It’s very easy to be down on Penn State after one of the most Big Ten-style games in history last week.
The 20-18 nine-overtime loss to Illinois was confusing on so many levels. Penn State’s defense has been so good all season, then goes out and gives up 395 yards to an Illinois offense that averages only 328 — 357 of those yards were on the ground.
The Nittany Lions’ offense reached a new level of ineptness, going 4-for-17 on third down while accounting for only 227 yards of offense. They struggled to pass and couldn’t run. Oh, and by the way, Penn State forced three Illinois turnovers and still couldn’t even hit 20 points.
So why is Ohio State on upset alert against that dumpster fire? That Penn State defense is still pretty good.
There’s no way last week is the real Penn State defense, especially after such good performances all season. They’ve held pretty much everyone at bay, including Wisconsin, Auburn, and Iowa.
Ohio State’s offense has been fantastic this year, but against who that’s actually good? Don’t forget about that Minnesota game at the beginning of the year either. We saw that the formula to beat the Buckeyes is a good run game and solid defense. hat changed when Minnesota’s top running back got injured, but the Gophers showed how to do it for three quarters. Oregon then perfected it, defeating Ohio State the next week.
And what does Penn State have? The 26th total defense in the country and a run game that’s not spectacular, but can do just enough. They’re towards the bottom in terms of rush yards per game, but also towards the bottom in rushing attempts. Noah Cain might be in line for a big game, but keep an eye on Keyvone Lee. He’s averaging over five yards per carry and this could be where he overtakes Cain as the guy in the Nittany Lion backfield.
The Penn State defense is much better than either Oregon or Minnesota. But the performance of the defense won’t matter much if the offense can’t move. As long as Penn State can run effectively to keep the Buckeye defense honest and allow for occasional deep shots from Sean Clifford, Penn State will be able to do much better than people expect.