SMQ: How difficult is it to finish a college football season undefeated?

2nd Down: Checking in on Cincinnati’s College Football Playoff hopes

When the first College Football Playoff rankings were released on November 2, one of the biggest questions was where Cincinnati would land on the list. The Bearcats ultimately came in at No. 6, behind three Power Five teams sporting a loss. While it was the highest ranking bestowed on a Group of Five team since the College Football Playoff rankings first released in 2014, it was nevertheless four spots lower than Cincinnati ranked in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll.

Luke Fickell’s team came out in Week 10 and preserved their undefeated status with a 28-20 victory over Tulsa. Cincinnati was held to 116 rushing yards by the Golden Hurricane, but Desmond Ridder and Jerome Ford each punched in scores on the ground. Ridder also finished 15-of-23 through the air for 274 yards and a pair of touchdown strikes. The defense struggled against the Tulsa ground game, giving up 297 yards on 5.2 yards per carry. But it was hardly enough to take down the top team in the American Athletic Conference.

It was hardly the most eye-popping result of the weekend, something that will take a bit of polish off the Bearcats in the eyes of the CFP selection committee. But the Bearcats are also anything but in control of their own destiny, with the Group of Five hopefuls needing all the outside help they can get.

How else did Cincinnati’s situation change during Week 10?

Path clearer as two more Power Five teams suffered their first losses

Michigan State’s collapse against Purdue bolstered Cincinnati’s chances of swooping in and snagging a College Football Playoff spot, especially since the Spartans were ranked three spots above the Bearcats. Cincinnati also benefitted from the loss Wake Forest suffered at North Carolina as the Demon Deacons snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The losses stacked up in a way that clears out two more contenders for one of the coveted four spots in the College Football Playoff semifinals. As one of the four unbeaten teams remaining at the FBS level, Cincinnati faces little danger of falling out of that exclusive club throughout the rest of the regular season.

That is a double-edged sword, as the Bearcats are favored to finish undefeated but cannot take any real control over their own fate. As long as a group of selectors meet in a closed room behind the scenes to pull the levers of power in the sport, Group of Five teams will need a lot of help.

The committee is doing few favors for the AAC, which also won’t help itself

When the College Football Playoff selection committee released their first rankings, they proved that they are interested in propping up narratives about the bigger conferences at the expense of rewarding excellence among Group of Five programs.

The real scandal for Cincinnati isn’t necessarily where the Bearcats were ranked in the polls, or the teams ranked ahead of them. Rather, the real scandal was the teams ranked below the top 15 of the committee’s hierarchy. Though the committee would never say it out loud, they were doing everything possible to prop up the strength of schedule of the SEC and Big Ten teams placed ahead of the Bearcats.

Alabama’s position at No. 2 was justified in part because of wins over a Mississippi State team inexplicably ranked No. 17 when they sat outside both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll and would have ranked No. 34 under the old BCS formula.

A similar situation propped up Ohio State at No. 5, with their best win coming against a Minnesota team ranked No. 20 by the committee. The BCS would have ranked the Golden Gophers at No. 30, right where the AP and the coaches placed PJ Fleck’s squad. Wisconsin likewise got a big bump from the Playoff selectors compared to every other rankings system.

While these SEC and Big Ten schools got the benefit of the doubt, other programs received little love from the committee. For Cincinnati, the fact that no other AAC team was listed in the Top 25 was detrimental to their schedule strength. Teams like Houston and SMU—both of which would be Top 25 programs under the BCS algorithm—found themselves unranked and unrecognized by the bigwigs in the backroom.

Houston won again in Week 10, improving to 8-1 with their 52-24 victory over South Florida. The Cougars will likely move into the next rankings when they are released on November 9. SMU, the team Houston beat in Week 9, continues their back-half collapse after falling 28-25 against Memphis and is now an afterthought in the discussion.

Verdict after Week 10 play: Cincinnati still outside top 4

At this point the committee is going to penalize Michigan State for their loss against an unranked Purdue squad. That will help the Bearcats edge closer to a spot in the semifinal field of four, though they will still be outside the top four when the selection committee releases the next set of College Football Playoff rankings. The inclusion of Houston will help bolster perceptions about the AAC for the general public, but Cincinnati won’t play the Cougars unless and until they meet in the conference championship game.

There isn’t necessarily a conspiracy, but the committee is doing everything possible to keep Cincinnati at arm’s length until they absolutely have to recognize Fickell’s charges as a top-four unit.