SMQ: How difficult is it to finish a college football season undefeated?

3rd Down: Predicting the next College Football Playoff committee rankings

For five years I was in charge of projecting the AP Top 25 and College Football Playoff selection committee rankings here at Saturday Blitz. The main things I learned, more than anything else, is that you can be really good at reading the thoughts of the media releasing their weekly ballots while having no clue what the backroom voters think behind closed doors. The same is true in reverse.

As we saw during the previous down, there are often wide disparities between where the CFP committee ranks teams and where the AP and Coaches polls rank those teams. A program’s position can fluctuate more than a dozen positions between the algorithm of the previous system, the two main public polls, and the current opaque process of picking the semifinals.

How will the next batch of Top 25 rankings look once the committee completes their deliberations? Here is my best guess after years of engaging in this fun if futile exercise:

1. Georgia — There is no ostensible reason to drop the Bulldogs after another rout in SEC play.
2. Alabama — The committee is doing their damnedest to justify a second SEC team at No. 2.
3. Oregon — Ducks are the big beneficiary of Michigan State’s collapse in West Lafayette.
4. Ohio State — Buckeyes reach top four after outlasting Nebraska in Lincoln on Saturday.
5. Cincinnati — Bearcats edge closer to Playoff qualification after 25th straight home victory.
6. Michigan — Wolverines took down Indiana to keep pace in the Big Ten West race.
7. Oklahoma — Sooners move up a spot despite sitting idle in Week 10.
8. Notre Dame — Notre Dame bumps up two spots after trouncing Navy at home.
9. Oklahoma State — Cowboys topple West Virginia and remain in hunt for Big 12 title.
10. Texas A&M — Aggies won battle of top-15 teams at home to vault into top 10.
11. Michigan State — Spartans suffered Purdue curse afflicting many Big Ten teams.
12. BYU — Cougars dismantle FCS opponent in Provo to get seventh win of the year.
13. Ole Miss — Rebels wrap up non-conference play with big win over Liberty.
14. NC State — Wolfpack due to jump three to five spots after downing Florida State.
15. Auburn — Auburn won’t fall far after falling on the road in top-15 showdown at Texas A&M.
16. Wake Forest — Demon Deacons fall to end ACC hopes of a spot in the Playoff.
17. Wisconsin — Badgers won fifth straight in a 52-3 rout on the road at Rutgers.
18. Iowa — Hawkeyes stayed alive in Big Ten West race after toppling Northwestern.
19. Pittsburgh — Panthers have uphill climb to gain legitimacy out of weak ACC.
20. Arkansas — Razorbacks climb in this week after taking down Mississippi State.
21. Houston — Cougars become second AAC team in rankings after improving to 8-1.
22. Baylor — Bears to drop at least 10 spots after falling against unranked TCU in Fort Worth.
23. UTSA — The class of Conference USA gets a nod from pollsters after big win at UTEP.
24. San Diego State — Aztecs stay at No. 24 after surviving an island upset scare at Hawaii.
25. Louisiana — Ragin’ Cajuns slot in as last team to give Sun Belt representation.

Other teams that will be considered by the committee include Kentucky (6-3, lost 45-42 vs. Tennessee), Coastal Carolina (8-1, won 28-8 at Georgia Southern), and Utah State (7-2, won 35-13 at New Mexico State).