SMQ: What is the value of a win versus a loss in the College Football Playoff?

3rd Down: Predicting the next College Football Playoff committee rankings

Before getting into this week’s projections for the next College Football Playoff rankings that will be released on Tuesday, we must acknowledge that predicting the committee’s intentions is an exercise in futility. No matter how well one might think that they know the collective intentions of the dozen selectors behind closed doors, there will always be inexplicable results that emerge from week to week.

The only consistent pattern that has emerged from the College Football Playoff selection committee is that there is no consistency in their decision-making process. Sometimes head-to-head results matter between teams with identical records. That doesn’t always hold true, though, even in the same week of rankings. Just look at how Michigan was ranked ahead of Michigan State last week even though the Spartans won their rivalry showdown, while Oregon continues to sit just ahead of the Ohio State team they toppled on the road in September.

Predicting what AP voters are going to do from week to week is a far more straightforward exercise. With voters releasing their ballots each week, it is far simpler to get a clear read on how everyone is prone to vote. When the only explanations are the doublespeak of the committee chairman, there is no real transparency.

That won’t prevent us from engaging in this time-honored exercise of trying to read minds. The best guess this week is that the top of the Top 25 goes unchanged while the murky middle gets a lot murkier as the committee uses those spots to bolster the strength of schedule of its favorite teams.

Let’s dive into this week’s full slate of College Football Playoff selection committee Top 25 projections.

1. Georgia — After falling behind in the first quarter at Tennessee, the Bulldogs clamped down and wrapped up SEC play with a 41-17 victory. James Cook led the way with 104 yards and a pair of rushing scores on just 10 carries, while the Volunteers were held to just 55 total yards on the ground. Only defeat will topple Georgia from the top.
2. Alabama — New Mexico State isn’t much of a test, but Alabama still demolished the Aggies in a 59-3 rout. The committee will have no problem with a Crimson Tide victory that outpaced the 50-point spread set by Vegas for this mismatch.
3. Oregon — Washington State made Oregon sweat a bit at Autzen Stadium in Pac-12 After Dark action, but the Ducks held on for a two-touchdown victory. Oregon should remain ahead of Ohio State this week, but it would hardly be surprising to see the committee start to creep the Buckeyes over the team that dealt them their only defeat this season.
4. Ohio State — Purdue had no chance to topple a third top-five team this season. The Buckeyes jumped to a 21-7 lead in the first quarter and already led 45-17 at halftime of a 59-31 blowout. It probably won’t happen this week, but we’ll likely see Ohio State leapfrog the Ducks squad they lost to at the Horseshoe as early as next week.
5. Cincinnati — The Bearcats took down South Florida by 17 on Friday night in Tampa to earn their 10th win of the year. Desmond Ridder broke the Cincinnati career touchdown record in the victory, and the Bearcats defense forced four Bulls turnovers on the road. It still won’t be enough to climb into the top four.
6. Michigan — Should Michigan be rated ahead of Michigan State? I personally don’t believe so, but the committee feels pretty adamant about that. They’ll perceive a win over Penn State by four on the road as more impressive than what the Spartans bring to the table…
7. Michigan State — … which is a 19-point win at home over Maryland. Payton Thorne threw four touchdown passes, and Kenneth Walker III kept his Heisman hopes alive with another monster day (32 touches, 172 total yards, two touchdowns). But they’ll still be behind the Wolverines team that they bested on the field, because of reasons.
8. Oklahoma State — The Cowboys made short work of a TCU team in transition, sending the Horned Frogs back to Fort Worth licking wounds after a 63-17 mollywhopping. After Oklahoma’s defeat, the Cowboys will be the top-ranked Big 12 team in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
9. Notre Dame — The Fighting Irish took care of business in Charlottesville, trouncing Virginia 28-3. Normally Notre Dame would climb after such a convincing win, but the guess here is that the committee keeps Brian Kelly’s squad at No. 9 so as not to inflate Cincinnati’s record any further than necessary.
10. Wake Forest — Wake Forest is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Power Five league leaders, unable to garner any respect from the selection committee.  They’ll finally climb into the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings this week after surviving a top-20 showdown against NC State and improving to 9-1 this season.
11. Baylor — We will likely see the Bears climb anywhere from two to four spots this week after their 27-14 knockout of Oklahoma. The win over the Sooners kept Baylor alive in the Big 12 race. Baylor still needs help to play for the league crown, but they’ll be in solid New Year’s Six position if they don’t reach the Big 12 title game.
12. Ole Miss — Mississippi welcomed Texas A&M to Oxford for a top-15 showdown, and they survived several scares to prevail 29-19. Jerrion Ealy racked up 224 total yards, while the Ole Miss defense forced two Aggies interceptions. Lane Kiffin’s crew will continue to be rewarded for their spoiler status.
13. Oklahoma — Oklahoma dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving just three teams with perfect records in the FBS at this point of the season. The Sooners are still sitting in a tie with their nemesis Oklahoma State atop the Big 12 standings, and they could get a rematch against Baylor in the title game. But teams usually slip four to six spots after losing to a lower-ranked opponent, and so it shall pass.
14. BYU — BYU will move neither up nor down after taking a bye in Week 11. This has historically been a standard operating procedure for the committee, especially in the first few weeks of the poll. The Cougars won’t get that benefit of the doubt later in November, especially with the tough part of their schedule in the rearview mirror.
15. Wisconsin — After opening the year 1-3, Wisconsin has now won six straight after making short work of Northwestern in Week 11. The Badgers control their destiny in the Big Ten West thanks to their tiebreaker over Iowa, and attrition around them will push Paul Chryst’s team into the top 15 this week.
16. Iowa — With Minnesota and Purdue now a game behind in the division standings, Iowa’s path to Indianapolis is simple. They just need Wisconsin to lose again. That could be a tall order for the Hawkeyes, but they’ve still guaranteed themselves a trip to a sunny postseason destination over this holiday season.
17. Texas A&M — The dream of swooping the SEC West from Alabama was cut out from underneath Texas A&M on Saturday in Oxford, as the Aggies fell on the road against Ole Miss. Now two games back, Jimbo Fisher’s crew will still be in the College Football Playoff rankings but fighting for a New Year’s Six spot instead of a semifinal berth.
18. Pittsburgh — Should Pittsburgh be ranked this high? Will the committee actually rank the Panthers this high? I do not know, but given the other options on the table at this point it would not be surprising to see Pitt climb three spots this week after surviving the comeback bid by the Tar Heels.
19. San Diego State — San Diego State held on for a narrow 23-21 victory that gained the Aztecs sole possession of the MWC West race. At 9-1, SDSU is well-positioned to swoop in and snatch the Group of Five’s automatic bid into a New Year’s Six bowl — if the AAC implodes upon itself in the final few weeks of the regular season.
20. NC State — The Wolfpack won’t fall completely out of the selection committee’s favor after dropping their showdown against higher-ranked Wake Forest. NC State will hover somewhere just inside or just outside the No. 20 spot per precedent. The head-to-head win over Clemson could be critical in any hypothetical battle for a final New Year’s Six spot.
21. UTSA — After plenty of public backlash, the College Football Playoff selection committee put UTSA into their second set of rankings last week. The Roadrunners consolidated their position and should move up a few spots after escaping an upset bid by Southern Miss. Now one of only three undefeated FBS teams, UTSA might warrant an even higher ranking but won’t be given it by the committee.
22. Utah — Utah maintained its lead atop the Pac-12 South standings after a 38-29 victory against Arizona. Kyle Whittingham’s team kept Arizona in check, forcing Will Plummer to try to do everything. Utah is the team with the best chance to throw a wrench in Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes, either in Week 12 or in the Pac-12 championship game on December 3.
23. Houston — Look for Houston to move up into the College Football Playoff rankings for the first time this year after improving to 9-1 in a 37-8 takedown of Temple. Unlike previous seasons, the selection committee has opted not to reserve its final few spots as bones to throw to top Group of Five teams. Houston deserves far more than a bone, and they could continue to climb quickly once they enter the pecking order.
24. Arkansas — The Razorbacks had the chance to make a bigger climb up the Top 25 this week. Instead, Arkansas barely survived LSU after the Tigers forced overtime in Death Valley. A New Year’s Six bid is a longshot at this point, but Arkansas could still finish the season ranked for the first time in a decade.
25. This is a week where putting Louisiana into the Top 25 should be a no-brainer for the College Football Playoff selection committee… which means we’ll more likely see them put in a team like 7-3 Clemson in order to inflate the ACC’s positioning in the rankings and to keep that league alive in the Playoff hunt. Look for the latter to happen before former, because what is right in the committee’s eyes is not rewarding merit but rewarding those teams that can boost revenue.

Auburn and Purdue will drop out of the rankings this week after both schools lost their fourth game of the season. Other teams that will be considered by the committee include 8-2 SMU, 8-2 Appalachian State, 7-3 Kentucky, and 7-3 Arizona State.