College Football Upset Alert 2021: Championship Week edition

8. No. 2 Michigan (-10.5 vs. No. 13 Iowa)

This isn’t low because I don’t think Iowa can’t beat Michigan. I think they can and wouldn’t be shocked. This is so low because of all the games this weekend, this is the one I have absolutely no idea what to make of. The fact that Iowa is so wildly inconsistent makes this nearly impossible to predict.

When Iowa is at its best, its physical style is good enough to beat Michigan. When the Hawkeyes are off, they’re bad enough to be blown out of the stadium in the first quarter. And that’s the problem: there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground there. Iowa’s winning ways have been because of the defense, while the offense doesn’t even average 300 yards per game.

The Michigan defense is just as good, but their offense is far more explosive. Iowa will need to make this a defensive slugfest and force turnovers — something Michigan has largely been able to avoid — to have a chance.

Iowa also has to slow down Michigan’s elite rushing attack of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. Even if the Hawkeyes defense can keep them in the game, have we really seen enough to believe that Iowa’s offense can score more than 14 points against this Michigan defense?

7. No. 17 Utah (-2.5 vs. No. 10 Oregon)

It’d hard to see Utah kicking the snot out of Oregon as bad as they did two weeks ago. This game should be my h closer than the 31-point beatdown Utah gave then. Oregon was flat-out embarrassed, being held to just 294 total yards and seven points.

The loss ended Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes, and now this is Oregon’s chance to end Utah’s Rose Bowl dreams. What has to be different for the Ducks? For starters, Oregon’s special teams has to be better. The last time these two teams faced off, Oregon missed two first-half field goals and then allowed a 78-yard punt return as time expired in the first half. Oregon could have gone into the locker room down 21-6, but instead were down 28-0. That’s a 13-point swing that Oregon ultimately never recovered from.

The Ducks need a fast start this time to send a message to the Utah defense that things won’t be as easy as two weeks ago. In particular, a solid 30-plus yard run early in the game would be a great way to send that message.

Oregon couldn’t run last time, accounting for only 63 yards on the ground.