College Football Upset Alert 2021: Championship Week edition

4. No. 1 Georgia (-6.5 vs. No. 3 Alabama)

Alabama is still Alabama, but are they really Alabama? The Alabama defense is the worst it’s been in years, and last week against Auburn is the most discombobulated offense I’ve seen from a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team since 2007. Honestly, the only reason this game is this high is that it’s a Saban-coached Alabama team.

This would be a real upset if Georgia lost.

The Bulldogs’ defensive line should eat the Alabama offensive line alive and have Bryce Young running for his life. Alabama’s path to victory is to play defensively as it did against Auburn — ideally not needing a Georgia running back to step out of bounds late — and turn this into a glorified field goal contest. Think of the 9-6 Alabama/LSU game of 2011 for reference. And yes, I do know Alabama lost that game, but that is the type of game that Alabama would benefit from the most.

If Georgia gets off to a fast start, it might be over quickly. This is the kind of game where a 14-point Georgia lead might feel like 100.

3. No. 15 Pitt (-3 vs. No. 16 Wake Forest)

Let me start by saying I absolutely love Pitt this year. A baffling loss to Western Michigan is keeping them out of the College Football Playoff conversation. Kenny Pickett deserves a lot more Heisman talk than he’s gotten. Show me one game where he didn’t look like a Heisman-caliber player — 40 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and just two games under 270 passing yards. Pickett was, in my opinion, the best quarterback in college football this season.

Wake Forest comes in 10-2, but it hasn’t really beaten anyone impressive other than NC State. It started 8-0, but is just 2-2 since then. The key for Wake Forest: can the offensive line hold up and keep Sam Hartman upright against an underrated Pitt pass rush? And if they can, do they give him enough time to make smart throws or does he try to force something he shouldn’t?

Pickett will lead the headlines, but big plays late by the Pitt defense will be the reason it pulls this one out.