College Football Upset Alert 2021: Championship Week edition

2. No. 4 Cincinnati (-10.5 vs. No. 21 Houston)

All the pressure in the world is squarely on the Cincinnati Bearcats. They’re in a position no Group of Five team has ever been in: win and you’re in. Cincinnati has a College Football Playoff berth to lose.

What does Houston have to lose? Nothing compared to what the Bearcats have on their plate.

Houston’s been sneaky good. They’re ranked 21st, but only have one loss in the opening game against Texas Tech. They’ve won 11 straight since. Houston’s defense has been unbelievably good, especially against the run. Navy was the only team to have a really successful day against them, but that’s to be expected when a team like Navy runs most of the time.

But here’s the problem with Houston and why they’ve been a quiet success: who have they beaten? They beat absolutely nobody in the non-conference schedule — sorry, Rice, Grambling, and UConn — and their best conference win was probably East Carolina or SMU. It’s not Houston’s fault. They do play in the same conference as Cincinnati.

Cincinnati’s best wins are UCF and SMU, but they have the ultimate trump card with a non-conference win on the road against Notre Dame.

There really isn’t a blueprint to defeating Cincinnati because most of their close games were self-inflicted where they just didn’t play well.

Houston will need its defense to step up and make Desmond Ridder uncomfortable in the pocket the same way UCF did. It helps, too, that Houston leads the AAC in turnover margin while turnovers have been an issue lately for the Bearcats.

A very under-the-radar thing to watch: Houston’s Marcus Jones, who is one of the best returners in the country. He can easily flip the field for Houston and giving the Cougars a short field against such a solid defense might be the difference between a win and a loss.

1. No. 5 Oklahoma State (-5.5 vs. No. 9 Baylor)

The state of Oklahoma is once again in the Big 12 Championship game, but this time, it’s the Cowboys of Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys have been one of the more underappreciated teams in the country this season. They weren’t even ranked coming into the season but are now within an eyelash of the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State defeated Baylor by 10 earlier this season, but after defeating Oklahoma, the Bears have a renewed confidence. The Baylor defense has been a huge part of their success, which is rare in an offensive-minded Big 12. Only once in these 12 games has the Baylor defense given up 30 points, and that was in a two-point loss to TCU the week prior to defeating Oklahoma. In fact, 30 is the most Baylor has given up.

The Baylor offense has to step up in this game because that’s ultimately what cost them last time. Baylor’s defense forced three turnovers in the last meeting. The three drives that followed those turnovers? Nine total plays, negative six yards. That simply cannot happen again.

In a game where points might be at a premium (who would have thought that would be a statement in the Big 12) Baylor needs to capitalize, even just with field goals, to ensure that this time maybe instead of being down ten with two minutes to go in the game, they’re only down one point instead of 10.

Another thing to watch: Baylor has been here before, while Oklahoma State has never been in a Big 12 title game. Will experience matter?