SMQ: As usual, talent rules the day in College Football Playoff semifinals
By Zach Bigalke
Why is the talent disparity so pronounced at the FBS level?
Several factors play into why we see so many blowouts in the College Football Playoff semifinals, but most point back to the talent disparity that has developed throughout the sport. The first gets at the heart of one conference’s dominance, while the latter centers on downturns on the field at several national powerhouses.
This season, five of the top 10 teams in the Team Talent Composite hailed from the SEC. In addition to historically stacked rosters at Alabama and Georgia, talent was also piled up high at LSU, Florida, and Texas A&M. Going back to 2020, the same five schools featured in the top 11 of the rankings. Two years ago, seven of the top 16 teams in terms of compiled talent were SEC schools.
In a four-team College Football Playoff, at most two SEC schools will make the field. That leaves three to five of the most talented programs to play in consolation-prize bowl games. The demographic shift toward Sunbelt cities, along with infrastructural investment in recruiting resources, has allowed SEC programs to keep the bulk of the talent within their geographic footprint within the conference.
The conference-wide consolidation of talent in the SEC inevitably means that some lesser-talented schools will always reach the field as the champions of other Power Five conferences. Setting aside the unique nature of Cincinnati’s appearance this season, conference champions like Michigan State in 2015, Washington in 2016, this year’s Michigan team, and even Clemson in 2017 tried and failed to overcome a wide gulf in composite talent.
The latter comes down to which teams are winning conference crowns outside the SEC. When Washington won the Pac-12 and played their way into a date with Alabama in 2016, they were the only Power Five team with a Team Talent Composite ranking below 700 to reach a College Football Playoff semifinal game. USC, UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon all boasted more talented rosters on paper, but they also all had at least three losses on their record by the end of the regular season.
Similarly, when Michigan State qualified a year earlier with a team that barely broke the 700-point barrier in the Team Talent Composite, the Spartans won the Big Ten over Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State teams that boasted deeper rosters. None of the other three even had a chance to play for the Big Ten crown, given all four play in the East Division.
The College Football Playoff selection committee is not beholden to selecting conference champions, but they also need teams to play up to the level of their talent to justify their inclusion in the bracket. Teams will never be selected solely based on their recruiting prowess or ability to attract top transfers. Any team wanting to make the semifinals must convert the talent on their roster into points and victories.