What if North Dakota State Transitioned to FBS Football?

130 teams is a lot of competition, but how many would actually be competitive?

Obviously, this list is up for extreme debate. But if you put 2021 North Dakota State against the 2021 version of all FBS teams, this is how I think things would shake out.

Easy win (42): The entire MAC, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Colorado State, Duke, FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Navy, New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, Old Dominion, Rice, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Temple, Texas State, Troy, Tulsa, UConn, ULM, UMass, UNLV, USF, Vanderbilt.

Should win (29): App State, Arizona, Colorado, East Carolina, Florida State, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Liberty, Louisiana, Louisville, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Nevada, Northwestern, San Jose State, Stanford, Syracuse, Tulane,  UAB, UCF, UTSA, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia, Washington State,, Western Kentucky, Wyoming.

Toss-Up (29): Air Force, Arizona State, Army, Boston College, Boise State,  Cal, Coastal Carolina, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas State, LSU, Miami, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon State, Penn State, Rutgers, San Diego State, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wake Forest, West Virginia.

Should Lose (18): Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan State, Minnesota, NC State, Oregon, Pitt, Purdue, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Utah, Wisconsin,

Not a chance (12): Alabama, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.

So looking at this, there are 42 teams that North Dakota State should have no problems with. That seems like a lot, but that still only puts North Dakota State as the 88th best team in college football. That usually represents a 3-9ish team. There are also 30 teams that I think North Dakota State would lose to. Of the 18 teams, North Dakota State should lose to, let’s say they can defeat two of them.  So basically, their range is 30th to 88th. That’s a wide margin that we can narrow down even more.

There are 29 games they “should win.” that’s also a big number, but let’s say four teams from that list pull an upset. They split the toss-up games and we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt (which nine titles in 11 years allows for) and they end up 15-14 in those games. That means overall against all 130 teams, the Bison can win 84 games. meaning there are 46 teams they would lose to. We’ll rank those 46 ahead of North Dakota State because unlike the College Football Playoff poll, head-to-head matters. So 47th would be the final ranking for North Dakota State.

Honestly, 47th sounds about right for North Dakota State. Right now, they would likely be an 8-4 kind of team at the next level (give or take a few wins depending on the conference, of course) and 47th is just about right for that number.

In the FBS, they would be a team like Coastal Carolina that has a nice transition to the next level and really not miss a beat. Teams like the aforementioned Chanticleers along with App State have shown smooth transitions for top teams are possible.

On the other hand, teams like UMass, UTSA, and Old Dominion had/are giving really tough times staying competitive at this level. I think North Dakota State’s level of success isn’t something that would drop off to nothing.

I think once established, they would take the path of TCU, moving up the conference ladder (yes, I know they were in a powerful SWC spot, but the move up from WAC to CUSA to Mountain West to the Big 12 over a 16-year span is comparable) until eventually becoming a legitimate Power Five conference championship threat.