It’s time for the College Football Playoff to die

The College Football Playoff was started nearly a decade ago with high hopes. Instead of fun, competitive games, the playoffs have been a bore.

It’s time to destroy the College Football Playoff. No, really, scrap the whole thing.

The playoff has become a disaster zone of blowouts. It has enabled all the worst vices of ESPN’s college football coverage, which has turned every regular season game into a prelude for the playoff. Even worse, college football’s well-known talent concentration problem has become more apparent in this era.

Nothing good has come from the last eight years of college football’s top division. Administrators have gotten richer, yes. But, the common fan has lost more than they gained. Instead of a chaotic, magical sport, college football is eating itself, thanks to the all-important god of money.

Because said money is flowing in now, there’s no way the College Football Playoff will actually be killed. In the long term, however, the sport will suffer because of it.

Underdogs can’t compete in the playoff era

Except for the five or six schools that happened to be in the right place at the right time, the College Football Playoff has crushed what little parity there is. Sports have always needed dynasties, because nothing draws like a good villain.

There are no underdogs, though, that can compete and be a compelling story. Cincinnati was wiped off the field by Alabama in this year’s playoff. Michigan State and Washington were thoroughly crushed in their only CFP appearances. Much like American capitalism, if you didn’t get in on the ground floor, you’re out of luck.

College football works differently compared to every other sport. Instead of a playoff causing chaos, what happens in the college game is the talent differential becomes apparent the more games that are played. On occasion, upsets occur. But, with the pace of the game now, as well as the recruiting talent concentration, a playoff just leads to the more talented team getting a second chance.

In the era before the playoff, one loss was damaging. Without a playoff, teams with a talent advantage needed to be near-perfect, because there were not enough games to recover. Now, however, there are.

The numbers don’t lie about the competitiveness of the last decade

For proof, just look at the numbers. From 1983 to 1990 – the last eight years of the pre-title game era – there were six different national champions, and 21 different schools appeared in the AP top five. In this eight-year era, that number has decreased to five different national champions, and 17 schools with at least one appearance in the AP top five.

Even worse, the number of schools that can make sustained runs has dropped off, too. In the last eight years of the pre-title game era, 11 different schools have appeared in the AP top five at least twice. That number dropped off to seven in this era.

Meanwhile, the number of teams that have gobbled up playoff-contending spots year after year has actually increased in this era. In the last eight years of the pre-bowl times, only two teams – Miami and Florida State – appeared more than four times. For the playoff era, that number has increased to four teams. Those four – Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma – have been the chief culprits of boredom for many a year now.

Recruits may be going to fewer programs

Although not as dramatic as the number of title contenders, the recruiting race itself is becoming more of a powerhouse show. Since recruiting data from the 1980s and 1990s is extremely hard to come by, numbers from 2007 to 2014 are used. That time period coincides with the last few years of the BCS, which is not perfect, but still hints at shifting trends.

In the last few years of the BCS era, 22 teams had at least one top 10 recruiting class. By contrast, the College Football Playoff era had 19 teams with a top 10 class. Despite the playoff era having three fewer teams in that blue-chip zone, both eras have 12 teams appearing at least four times in the top 10.

While that data isn’t enough for a definitive answer, it suggests that there’s been a slight tick upward in the talent the top programs are getting.

TV ratings are suffering

With all those factors coming into play, is it really a wonder that ratings for the playoff have been dropping too?

After starting out with an 18.6 rating for the first playoff title game in 2014, ratings have dipped. In the mid 2010s, those ratings were consistent with the BCS title games of the 2000s. By 2019, ratings had dipped into the low 14s for the title game, which rivals the lowest ratings of the 2000s games.

In 2021, this trend worsened, as the 10.3 rating for the Alabama-Ohio State game was, by far, the worst out of all the title games. 2022’s Georgia-Alabama rematch drew a better audience but still falls behind any title game except for 2001 and 2004’s. Both the 2001 and 2004 games, however, were huge blowouts. Unlike those games, though, the Georgia-Alabama game from this year was a close affair until the last two minutes of the contest.

Last year’s semifinal games were also in the tank, viewer-wise. Uncompetitive blowouts do not make for compelling television, nor do rematches of the same game that fans saw a month ago.

The shoehorning of the playoff in every game has made college football coverage obnoxious

Everyone expected the playoff to invent a whole new paradigm for college football. The sport went 142 years without crowning a champion via a playoff, so suddenly having one was a huge deal.

Yet, ESPN’s coverage has turned every game – whether the team is in playoff contention or not – into a vehicle to promote the playoff. The rivalries, the pageantry, and conference races are all subservient to the playoff. Blood feuds are now built up as nothing more than a prelude. College football is fast becoming just another content package, with the playoff as the only worthwhile ending.

Because ESPN has a hegemony over college football coverage, they control which teams are shown. Since these teams will have to be in playoff contention to be worth showing for ESPN, it creates a feedback loop. Top recruits want to go to schools that get on TV, but those schools are already the ones that get the most coverage. Thus, top recruits choose the schools that are already covered, effectively locking out anyone outside of six or seven programs from major coverage.

Of course, ESPN paid a lot of money to cover the playoff and wanted to get the most out of it. Yet, as the TV ratings show, they’ve not done it well. There are a lot more sidewalk Alabama alums now, but few of those are converted die-hard fans that will actually spend money or have any long term care for the sport.

Lost, then, is the magic that made college football what it is

Regional rivalries have started to go by the wayside. The money in college football has become so immense, that conferences have added schools far outside their footprint.

If the playoff does not die – or even expands, as has been in the news for a while – the sport’s descent into another marketing exercise will continue. Lost, of course, will be the quirky, chaotic nature that gave college football its popularity to begin with. The fans will suffer, of course. But, so too will the players, who will take monetary hits when the college game starts to fall away from American consciousness.

What’s worse, is that the sport’s dying quirks would produce a more interesting national championship chase. While having a one versus two title game can be compelling, it’s more fun to watch weird scenarios play out that don’t happen in any other sport. An example would be 1984’s title chase, which ended with BYU winning a national title after coming back to win against a 6-5 Michigan team.

It becomes madness to suggest that we have less of that, and more of the same old, same old. A bigger playoff will mean more December blowouts, non-compelling conference races, and rivalries that mean even less than they do now.

There is only one choice, then.

Just let the awful monster die.