Why Oregon State football will be biggest Pac-12 surprise in 2022

The Pac-12 may not be the most attractive conference, but Oregon State football is looking to help change that one season at a time.

When analyzing the state of Pac-12 football today, there are several teams that have strong hopes for a promising future. Said teams include names like Utah, USC, UCLA, and Oregon.

However, there is one more program that has seemingly set itself up for a climb in the conference’s hierarchy, and that is Oregon State.

The Oregon State Beavers have not exactly been the most successful college football power as of late, only seeing two winning seasons between 2010 and 2020. But, their consistent struggles appeared to play no role in how last season treated them.

In 2021, Oregon State not only made a bowl game but also entered it with a 7-5 record. While that may not sound overly special to some, that means that the Beavers escaped their regular-season stretch with the most wins that they’ve had since 2012 (where they finished the regular season with a record of 9-3).

They ended up losing the LA Bowl to Utah State, but if they hadn’t, they would have finished with eight wins and their best overall record since 2012. But even with their bowl loss, they still finished the best that they have since 2013, so it was a monumental accomplishment nonetheless.

Now the aforementioned climb that the Oregon State Beavers look to be on will surely be rather gradual, but it might not creep as slowly as one would think. Such a statement mainly falls on the manageability of their upcoming slate.

The fate of the Beavers falls heavily on their schedule

This fall, OSU will have a very hot-and-cold schedule in its way, headlined by a combination of relatively “easy” home games and brutal road games.

The Beavers begin their run with all three of their non-conference matchups: a home game against Boise State, a trip to Fresno State, and a neutral-site game with Montana State in Portland. While that may not be the most comforting entrance to a season (especially by Oregon State’s usual standards), it is definitely capable of giving them a solid 2-1 start before league play begins.

Speaking of which, their Pac-12 journey doesn’t start as softly as one would prefer, as they first have to host USC, then travel to both Utah and Stanford. After that, they have to go back to Corvallis for home meetings with Washington State and Colorado before hitting their bye week.

But, similarly to their three non-conference games, Oregon State could still very much survive all five of those battles with a winning record. The biggest obstacles come early, as facing USC’s Lincoln Riley, followed by a trek into Salt Lake City is not a piece of cake for any team. However, Oregon State managed to unexpectedly beat both of those schools last season, so it appears as if victory is possible regardless of what the eyeball test tells you.

And as for the next three games: Stanford is terrible, Colorado is slightly less terrible, and Washington State — while also being on a respectable climb — is not to the point of downing the Beavers on the road.

That brings us to the last four opponents on their schedule, two of which are at home, while the other two are in enemy territory.

OSU will have to walk into Husky Stadium to take on Washington, head back home for the California game, take off to Tempe for a fight with Arizona State, and then it’s back home again for the closer against Oregon.

Most of these games could go either way, as neither Seattle nor Tempe are particularly renowned for their welcoming nature towards visitors. Not only that, but Cal showed flashes of potential in 2021 and, as a result, has earned the definition of a “trap game” in this scenario. Do any of those teams appear to be too strong for the Beavs, though? No, not really.

Last but not least, that just leaves the Ducks. Oregon’s own future is a tad shaky due to the arrival of unproven head coach Dan Lanning, so them traveling to face a big rival will be anything but simple for them this time around.

Looking at all of these games, it appears as if the Oregon State Beavers could fall somewhere around 7-5 again in 2022, cementing themselves as a promising up-and-comer on the West Coast. If they can keep up that level of performance — along with an upset here and there — OSU could be back to the team that they once were 15 years ago.