What’s next for Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 in college football expansion?
By Ryan Kay
Three teams rumored to join the Big 12
These three schools are also rumored to possibly leave the Pac-12 conference and join the Big 12.
Colorado, Utah, and the Arizona schools are no-brainers, but Oregon and Washington have a tougher call. Big 12 could be a solid landing spot for them, but at the risk of slamming the door on the Big Ten? serious opportunity cost to saying yes, or not. https://t.co/7MXG640Bas
— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) July 5, 2022
The big expansion news after UCLA and USC joined the Big Ten would be if Washington and Oregon leave to join the Pac-12 Conference. Let’s take a look at three other candidates that may leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12.
843. . . . Utes . . team
Member of a Power Five Conference: Yes, Pac-12
Top 40 Revenue School: Yes (#25)
Top 120 Academic National University: Yes (#99 tied)
Top 30 tv/streaming market: Yes (#30)
Chance of joining the Big 12: 25%
Since 2018, the Utes have won the Pac-12 South three times and won the conference by defeating Oregon to win the Pac-12 championship last season. Utah has had recent success in the Pac-12 and may be motivated to stay within the conference. The Utes after the 2010 season left the Mountain West to join the Pac-12 for the 2011 season. Utah and Colorado have similarities as they are both AAU members and both joined the then PAC-10 at the same time. Both universities are in neighboring states with Utah being further west and being a little bit closer geographically to other Pac-12 schools. It is a decent chance that if Colorado leaves the Pac-12 then Utah may follow but odds are that if Washington and Oregon stay in the Pac-12, so do the Utes.
818. . . . Huskies . . team
Member of a Power Five Conference: Yes, Pac-12
Top 40 Revenue School: Yes (#13)
Top 120 Academic National University: Yes (#59)
Top 30 tv/streaming market: Yes (#12)
Chance of joining the Big 12: 15%
Washington is a big-name program in a big media market with academic prestige as they are an AAU member and a top 60 academically nationally ranked university. The Huskies are a top 15 revenue-generating program and geographically they are not an ideal fit for the Big 12 conference. Washington may be waiting for a Big Ten invitation before deciding to leave the Pac-12 conference and the Huskies might be waiting to see if the Pac-12 can get a better media rights deal that would generate more money for conference members. However, if the Pac-12 ends up dissolving and the Huskies do not get an invitation to the Big Ten, it would then be likely that Washington would join the Big 12.
. . Ducks . . team. 820.
Member of a Power Five Conference: Yes, Pac-12
Top 40 Revenue School: Yes (#18)
Top 120 Academic National University: Yes (#99 tied)
Top 30 tv/streaming market: Yes (#21)
Chance of joining the Big 12: 10%
Oregon is a top 25 athletic revenue-generating school and program backed by an athletic titan company in Nike and it appears that the Ducks desired conference to go to is the Big Ten but there is a possibility that they could go to the Big 12 but a lot must happen for that occur in the near future. Oregon is an AAU member and their athletic programs are backed by Duck alum Phil Knight and arguably the most recognized athletic brand in Nike. Oregon can stay in the Pac-12 until the Big Ten expands again in a year or two. The Ducks are in a good position to stay in the Pac-12 along with Washington and play the long game. However, if the Pac-12 is unable to complete their new alliance with the ACC and not negotiate a new media rights deal to increase revenues for their schools, then it is still a small possibility they leave to join to Big 12.