As the 2022 preseason polls come out and the hype begins nationwide, let’s determine which college football teams are the most overrated and underrated.
As college football fans, we’ve been through a splashy offseason of transfers, coaching changes, and controversies. New NIL deals are popping up everywhere and the continued, non-stop rhythm of the transfer portal has helped players come and go with ease to wherever the grass is greener.
Consider that in the preseason AP Top 10 last year, six of its teams finished that way. Three of those teams didn’t even finish the season in the Top 25 overall — Texas A&M, Iowa State, and North Carolina.
If you had checked this warning during the 2021 preseason, you would have been well aware that the Longhorns, the Aggies, and the Tar Heels would vastly underperform all those expectations.
A 2021 preseason unranked team (Michigan) reached the College Football Playoff as one of the four best teams in the nation after defeating archrival Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title game.
Two other unranked teams from that preseason poll, Oklahoma State and Michigan State, surpassed all expectations to finish 2021 as top 10 teams. The Cowboys (12-2) ended by knocking off Oklahoma in the teams’ annual Bedlam matchup to send Sooners’ boss Lincoln Riley to USC mere hours later, followed by a Fiesta Bowl win against Notre Dame. Michigan State (11-2) also defeated its in-state rival, Michigan, en route to a Peach Bowl win against ACC champ Pittsburgh.
In fact, only 10 of the preseason Top 25 teams finished the 2021 season ranked. Sure, it wasn’t any stretch of the imagination to see Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State (despite the Michigan loss), and even Cincinnati vying for the national title late in the season, but there were many genuine surprises last year.
For example, few had predicted Baylor to win the Big 12 with a 12-2 record and a Sugar Bowl win. Or how about Pitt reaching the 11-win mark on its way to winning the ACC title at the expense of Clemson? Or teams like UNC and Iowa State (preseason Top 10 squads) combining for a 13-13 record?
The same logic applied to 2020: LSU and Penn State were preseason ranked top 10 teams that struggled in a pandemic-shortened season with 5-5 and 4-5 records, respectively.
Outside of those normal heavyweights among the nation’s top four or five teams, the lesson is clear for 2022: believe the preseason predictions at your own risk.
Which teams are the most overrated and underrated from each of the five power conferences?
ACC
Most Overrated: Clemson Tigers
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney always defends his team against the critics and isn’t afraid to speak his mind. He’s entering this fall seemingly on the defensive, even though his team has qualified for six of the past seven College Football Playoffs and has recorded double-digit wins in every single season since 2011. That stretch has included two national titles.
Even though the Tigers kicked it into high gear later in 2021, it’s hard to forget how pedestrian the team looked: quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei finished the year with nine passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions while the offense sputtered to 26.3 points per game, No. 82 out of 130 FBS teams. Close calls against Syracuse and Boston College were sandwiched by defeats to NC State and Pitt.
Many assume that Clemson will be a lock to win the ACC and subsequently make the CFP this fall. Others, though, aren’t completely convinced that Swinney has completed righted the ship in upstate South Carolina.
Most Underrated: Louisville Cardinals
Things are pretty quiet right now around Louisville, which is fair considering that the program has only posted one winning season in the past four years. But some publications are listing Florida State, Boston College, and Wake Forest to finish ahead of Louisville in the ACC’s Atlantic Division standings — which seems too much.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham is dynamite. He is back to lead an offense that gained nearly 450 yards per game, which ranked No. 21 in the nation. The Montgomery, Ala., native threw for 2,941 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions while rushing for 1,031 yards and 20 touchdowns last season.
Wide receiver Tyler Hudson joins the talented offensive cast from Central Arkansas, where he was an FCS All-American.
The Cardinals lost four games last year by less than one possession en route to a 6-7 finish after losing their bowl game. Expect things to look better in 2022, especially if the team can handle its opening three-game stretch of road games at Syracuse and Central Florida before hosting FSU.
Big Ten
Most Overrated: Michigan State Spartans
Some prognosticators have the Spartans pegged as a top 10 team entering the 2022 season but hold your horses. Michigan State had a nice run last year that included defeating Michigan and winning 11 games, but it’s too quick to assume that the squad will be back to that level of success in 2022.
The Spartans must replace three starters on the offensive line that paved the way for Kenneth Walker III’s memorable 2021 season — he won the Doak Walker Award after gaining 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He’s now playing for the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks.
The secondary is a concern, too, as a unit that surrendered 325 yards per game through the air, ranking dead last in the entire country last year. Both starting defensive ends must be replaced from a unit that struggled in the pass rush.
Michigan State faces a tough Big Ten slate of games, including a tough midseason stretch of Ohio State, Wisconsin, bye week, and at Michigan before ending the year with a trip to Penn State.
Listed above are solely the negative aspects of the Spartans’ 2022 outlook, to be sure — but it’s difficult to see this squad repeating last year’s 11-win season.
Most Underrated: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Head coach P.J. Fleck continues to “row the boat” in the Twin Cities, with last year’s team defeating Wisconsin and winning its bowl game against West Virginia to finish with a 9-4 record. He’s now led the team to 23 wins and 10 losses combined in the past three seasons.
There’s not a lot of preseason buzz about the Golden Gophers in 2022, however. The defense was the No. 6-ranked unit in the nation last year in points allowed (17.3 points per game) and quarterback Tanner Morgan returns for a fifth year under center despite some inconsistency last season.
Minnesota has an easy non-conference slate followed up by a Big Ten regular-season schedule that’s notably missing Michigan or Ohio State. If the Gophers can handle road trips to Michigan State and Penn State in the first half of league play, look out.
Big 12
Most Overrated: Oklahoma State Cowboys
OSU had a truly special season in 2021, defeating Bedlam rival OU and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl en route to a 12-2 finish and the nation’s No. 7 overall ranking in the AP Top 25. The Cowboys should still be decent this year, but many folks are expecting to see another top 10-caliber team in Stillwater.
That might be tough to repeat, even with returning quarterback Spencer Sanders at the helm.
The Cowboys lost defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State in addition to several transfers and sixth-year seniors graduating. It was a special unit in 2021, but can they repeat that magic this fall under a new coordinator in former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason?
Most Underrated: Texas Longhorns
This is strange, right? The Longhorns normally receive tons of preseason accolades and ESPN-fueled hype based on their reputation and the latest recruiting rankings. Then, they stumble out the gate and suffer some infamous, exposing loss on national TV that everyone endlessly dissects and sometimes mocks.
Since 2009’s team lost to Alabama in the national title game, no Texas team has finished with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season.
This season feels different, though. It’s not just that head coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns won the frenzied chase for prized recruit Arch Manning, who won’t arrive until after this season.
It feels like last year’s 5-7 debacle won’t be repeated — that the embarrassment of losing to Kansas and West Virginia will fuel this year’s squad. The Arch Manning momentum doesn’t hurt, in the meantime.
No one is really making much of the Longhorns right now — so it could be the perfect time for Texas to bounce back from a listless 2021. Ohio State transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers and talented wide receiver Jordan Whittington could rack up tons of points this fall for an improving Longhorns team. The Big 12 feels more wide open than in years past, too, which could allow Texas to contend for its first league title in 13 years.
Pac-12
Most Overrated: USC Trojans
No team is generating more buzz than Southern Cal is right now. There was the well-publicized move of new head coach Lincoln Riley hours after his previous team, Oklahoma, lost to Oklahoma State at the end of the regular season.
Then, a slew of high-profile transfers followed Riley out to Los Angeles, including former Sooners in quarterback Caleb Williams and wideout Mario Williams and former Pitt wideout Jordan Addison. This all-star cast is predicted to destroy the rest of the Pac-12 and vie for a CFP spot this year on its way to the greener pastures of the Big Ten. Even the oddsmakers have the Trojans with the fourth-best or fifth-best odds to win the national title.
Channel your inner Lee Corso here: “Not so fast, my friends!”
Yes, the defense is brand-new and has new talented players in from the transfer portal, but this is a unit from 2021 that surrendered more than 31 points per game (ranked No. 103 in the country) and 410 yards per game. The team finished 4-8 in Clay Helton’s final season in charge — and he was canned in September.
The offense will need time to jell, too. That’s the overall theme for USC this season: can a coach truly implement his “culture” and winning habits with a program after just eight months on the job, especially with a crew of mostly new faces from across the nation?
USC might look better than it should by playing in a weak Pac-12, but that league is Utah’s to lose this year.
Most Underrated: Washington
Washington had an equally mediocre 2021 to the Trojans, finishing the year with four consecutive losses to end with a 4-8 record. The Huskies managed to lose to an FCS opponent, Montana, in their season opener before later losing to lesser conference foes like Oregon State, Washington State, and Colorado.
It was the team’s first losing season since 2009, and former boss Jimmy Lake didn’t even last the duration of two seasons after being suspended late in 2021 for shoving a player during the Oregon game.
The expectations will be low for new head coach Kalen DeBoer, but there’s undeniable talent in Seattle. From 2015 to 2021, each recruiting class ranked at least among the nation’s top 30.
DeBoer brings a successful pedigree with him from Fresno State, which he guided to a 9-3 mark last year following a 4-8 mark in 2019, the season before he took over. The Huskies may not be back to winning a conference title this season, but they will be better than 2021.
SEC
Most Overrated: Arkansas Razorbacks
Can’t pick Texas A&M to be the most overrated SEC team every season. This year, let’s mix it up and hone in on Arkansas instead.
The Razorbacks had a special season in 2021, beating Texas, Texas A&M, and LSU en route to a 9-4 record and a No. 21 AP poll ranking. It was the Razorbacks’ best campaign in a decade, and it was done behind a potent rushing attack and a “can do” attitude promulgated by head coach Sam Pittman in just his second season on the job.
This will be a tough season to follow up for the Hogs. The non-conference slate features last year’s CFP finalist Cincinnati and a road trip to Provo, Utah to face BYU. The league contests include another ‘neutral’ site game vs. Texas A&M at Jerry World in addition to the normal SEC West gauntlet.
Treylon Burks went in the NFL Draft’s first round and will be suiting up for the Tennessee Titans on Sundays. He was a special pass catcher, and he will be difficult to replace. The Razorbacks might be just as talented as last year’s squad, but they won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
Most Underrated: South Carolina Gamecocks
The ol’ ball coach himself proved that it’s possible to win in Columbia, South Carolina — Steve Spurrier had led the Gamecocks to three consecutive 11-2 seasons while finishing in the AP Top 10 each year.
South Carolina hasn’t come near matching that success since then, but second-year head coach Shane Beamer provided lots of reasons for optimism in 2021 after a 7-6 record, the first winning season since 2018. The Gamecocks look hungry and optimistic — and they don’t look like one of those teams that will lose a couple of games midyear and suddenly start planning for the next seasons amid lost motivation, player defections, and lack of interest (ahem, Texas and Florida).
No one has really included South Carolina in any preseason Top 25 rankings, nor have many pegged them to finish in the top half of the SEC in 2022.
Underestimate the Gamecocks at your own risk, though. Quarterback Spencer Rattler had a terrific freshman season at Oklahoma in 2020 before a lackluster start to his sophomore year. Talented tight end Austin Stogner also joins the fray after transferring from OU. The defense has its share of stars, too, including cornerback Cam Smith, who should garner preseason All-American hype.