13 best College Football picks for Week 3: Can Oregon upset BYU?

No. 11 Michigan State at Washington (6:30 PM on ABC)

Michigan State, ranked No. 11 in this week’s AP Top 25, are underdogs heading into their road game against the Washington Huskies, according to the betting markets. Through the first two weeks of the college football season, both of these teams are putting up a ton of points on offense and playing outstanding defense.

The Spartans are allowing just 6.5 points per game while the Huskies are giving up 13 points per game. I expect UW QB Michael Penix Jr. to keep up his hot start to the 2022 season (6 TD, 1 INT) with help from a raucous crowd at Husky Stadium. UW seeking its first true 3-0 start to a season since 2017. Take the moneyline in this game as the game may be decided by three points or fewer (current line: Huskies -3.5).

Pick: Washington -156

UTSA at No. 21 Texas (7 PM on Longhorn Network)

UTSA has struggled to close out games this season. Through the first two college football games of the season, the Roadrunners have given up 40 points in the fourth quarter and overtime periods they’ve played and that was against Houston and Army. I can’t trust UTSA right now based on how they’ve performed, especially at the end of games. The Longhorns have the offensive firepower, but their biggest weapons are hurt  (QB Quinn Ewers and RB Bijan Robinson).

Pick: UTSA +12.5

No. 13 Miami at No. 24 Texas A&M (8 PM on ESPN)

Fans were getting a little nervous after Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes only mustard 10 first-half points last week vs Southern Miss. But, they made adjustments at half-time and were executing their game plan with ease. Miami’s defense will look to exploit the Texas A&M Aggies at their weakest point: the quarterback.

Aggies QB Haynes King is just not the guy to get this team to the level it needs to be to win at a high level. King threw two interceptions against an FCS defense in Week 1. He was nonplussed vs App State last week and TAMU got upset. Things are not headed in the right direction in Aggieland.

Pick: Miami +176

Fresno State at No. 7 USC (9:30 PM on Fox)

Everyone is thinking this game is going to be a shootout. While Fresno State QB Jake Haener isn’t playing at the same level he was in 2021 (yet), he’s one of the best passers in the Group of 5. USC’s offense is already clicking, averaging better than 53 points per game.

The Bulldogs have a history of playing down to their lesser opponents (8-point win vs UNLV and a 2-point win vs Hawaii last year), but playing well against good teams (3-point win vs No. 13 UCLA, 10-point win vs No. 21 SDSU in 2021).

We all know what the Trojans are capable of on offense. Can their defense keep the pressure on Haener? Fresno State has averaged between 30-33 ppg since 2019. To get over 70.5 points in this game, someone is going to have to put up 40+ points and USC has done it in both of their first two games of the 2022 college football season.

Pick: Over 70.5 points