LSU Football: 3 paths to the College Football Playoff for the Tigers

3. LSU beats Texas A&M, loses close to Georgia

There is a very, very low chance that this results in an LSU playoff berth. But hey, let’s play that game. According to my calculations, the following must happen:

• TCU loses out
• USC and Clemson lose their conference championships
• North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington lose this week

Other things that would be helpful include:

• Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt this week, however unlikely that may be
• The winner of Michigan/OSU losing in the Big Ten Championship
• USC and Clemson lose out

In the absolutely necessary scenario, unbeaten Georgia is No. 1 and unbeaten OSU/Michigan is No. 2. The loser of OSU/Michigan probably grabs the No. 3 spot (which could push the winner up to No. 1, but it’s unlikely). The No. 4 team comes down to three-loss conference champions in North Carolina and Oregon, two-loss TCU, USC, and Clemson, and three-loss LSU.

The Tigers are currently ranked ahead of all of these teams, and with all of them losing at least once, they could take the final spot. Their only legitimate competitor would be Oregon, and if LSU’s Georgia matchup is close, they may still hold favor over the Ducks.

If the helpful scenarios play out as well, we have a whole host of three-loss teams vying for a spot. The loser of OSU/Michigan doesn’t look as great either, as their loss will not be to an unbeaten conference champion and just promotes chaos. LSU probably remains at No. 4 if all of that happens, but practically clinches that spot and doesn’t leave it up to the committee.