College Football Playoff: How a 12-team playoff would look in 2022

First-round College Football Playoff games

One of the most exciting parts of the upcoming expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams is the fact that first-round games will be played at the home stadiums of the teams seeded fifth through eighth by the selection committee.

That means we would get to see a quartet of showdowns at iconic venues like Neyland Stadium, Bryant-Denny Stadium, and the Horseshoe in Columbus. TCU would lose its top-four status after falling in overtime to Kansas State, but their consolation would be a home date at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

Let’s look a bit deeper at the four hypothetical matchups.

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 TCU

Tulane won its first conference championship since 1998 after taking down UCF in the American Athletic Conference title game at home in New Orleans. Their reward in reality will be a trip to the Cotton Bowl and a date with USC. Imagine if they instead were headed to Fort Worth instead of Arlington with win-or-die stakes on the table?

Even after dropping an overtime heartbreaker against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship, the Horned Frogs have blossomed under Sonny Dykes this season. They would enter the contest against the Green Wave as heavy favorites, but Tulane would be no slouch—after all, they managed to beat Kansas State on the road in September.

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State

We already saw this showdown play out on the field this season, with the Buckeyes surviving a scare in State College with a 28-point fourth quarter to run away with a 44-31 victory. The venue would be flipped in this scenario, with the Nittany Lions traveling west to Ohio Stadium for an all-Big Ten duel with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

Since that late October battle in Happy Valley, Ohio State has been exposed somewhat in tougher-than-expected games at Northwestern and Maryland. Then they were boat-raced by Michigan at home. Penn State, on the other hand, routed its last four opponents by an average of more than 30 points per game. This would probably be a lot closer this time around.

No. 10 USC at No. 7 Alabama

From the standpoint of crossover appeal, this game has it all. USC was on a collision course for a top-four spot this year until they fell flat on their face against Utah in the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans have rediscovered their swagger in Lincoln Riley’s first year in Southern California, and they would be a dangerous College Football Playoff opponent for anyone.

Alabama has been somewhat down this year from its usual lofty standards, but betting against the Crimson Tide in a one-off chance to advance—especially when they’d get to play it on their home turf—is a fool’s errand. Nick Saban would almost certainly have his squad prepared to unleash the frustrations of missing out on an SEC title with little mercy for their Pac-12 foes.

No. 9 Kansas State at No. 8 Tennessee

Out of the four prospective first-round matchups, Kansas State and Tennessee is the one with the least history between the two teams. The Wildcats and Volunteers have met just once before, when Kansas State prevailed 35-21 on New Year’s Day 2001 at the Cotton Bowl. After winning the Big 12 championship as an underdog, Chris Klieman’s team would come into this game with a chip on its shoulder after being forced to play a non-champion on the road.

Tennessee couldn’t quite get over the hump this season, with their implosion against South Carolina ultimately dooming their last-gasp bid to sneak into this year’s College Football Playoff as a second SEC entry. They would still be favored on home turf at Neyland, but if anything is going to fall against chalk this round it would probably be this game.

Taking these predicted results, let’s now project how the quarterfinals might shake out.