College Football Playoff: How a 12-team playoff would look in 2022

College Football Playoff quarterfinals

The one obvious point of contention with the 12-team model for College Football Playoff expansion that takes flight in 2024 is that only the first four games will be played on college campuses. The current New Year’s Six rotation will be put to work as quarterfinal and semifinal sites for an expanded bracket, limiting the best part of the expansion—the incorporation of the on-campus environment that makes college football so electric.

It isn’t clear yet exactly how these semifinals and quarterfinals will be rotated between the various bowl sites. Assuming a similar system to that which rotates the semifinal games over a three-year period, where might teams land if the 12-team playoff came online this year?

COTTON BOWL: No. 5 TCU vs. No. 4 Utah

In the span of just over a decade, TCU and Utah went from being conference rivals in the Mountain West to contending in Power Five conferences. The Utes would earn a bye in a 12-team playoff this season after toppling USC for the Pac-12 crown, and Kyle Whittingham has created a deceptively stout and resilient program in Salt Lake City.

Gary Patterson no longer patrols the sideline for TCU as he did back in the Mountain West days, but the Horned Frogs remain a juggernaut. Still undefeated in regulation in 2022, they would test the Utah defense in ways few other programs have managed this season. Though Utah is the higher seed, this would be a de facto home game for the squad from Fort Worth. Would that be enough to carry them through?

SUGAR BOWL: No. 9 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Georgia

The defending national champions would get their pick of venues in the quarterfinals, and here’s guessing the Bulldogs would head toward the traditional haunt for SEC winners. Kansas State shocked the Horned Frogs for the Big 12 title, making this a battle of champions. But though they are projected in this thought experiment to topple Tennessee, this test is probably too much for Klieman’s crew to navigate.

Kirby Smart has another sound, battle-tested roster that has few glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball. Kansas State would have to play a perfect game to even keep this contest close. The more likely scenario is that things get away from the Wildcats quickly and any chance of an upset evaporates before halftiime.

ORANGE BOWL: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson

We’ve seen this matchup in major bowl games four times over the past decade, most recently in 2021 when Ohio State clobbered Clemson 49-28 in their semifinal showdown at the Sugar Bowl. This time they are projected to meet in Miami, but the result is probably going to play out similarly to that mismatch in New Orleans two years ago.

While Ohio State struggled with Michigan and hasn’t looked as sharp as their talent level merits over the last month of the regular season, they have still been far better over the entire span of the year than Dabo Swinney’s charges. The chalk fades here as Ohio State cracks the code and outlasts a determined but outmanned Clemson crew.

ROSE BOWL: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2. Michigan

After getting humiliated by Georgia on New Year’s Eve 2021 at the Orange Bowl, Michigan is on a quest this season to prove they belong among the upper echelon of powerhouses at the FBS level. They hopped over one hurdle by trouncing Ohio State at the Horseshoe and conquering the Big Ten. They landed a College Football Playoff spot outright, and in a 12-team playoff they’d be one of the most feared opponents to draw.

At the same time, Alabama is one low seed that nobody really wants to see on the other side of the draw. Despite a down year by Crimson Tide standards, betting against a Nick Saban team that has gone 6-1 in College Football Playoff semifinals since 2014 with an average margin of victory of more than 16 points. But just as a lower-seeded Ohio State team stunned the Tide in 2014, Jim Harbaugh’s crew is complete enough to do the same this season.

In any system, the cream is destined to rise to the top. After two rounds, which teams are likeliest to break through and earn a bid in the College Football Playoff championship?