How Vanderbilt football once again failed to shape its future

HONOLULU, HI - AUGUST 27: Mike Wright #5 of the Vanderbilt Commodores is congratulated by Justin Ball #84 of the Vanderbilt Commodores after scoring a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA football game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at the Clarance T.C. Ching Athletic Complex on August 27, 2022 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
HONOLULU, HI - AUGUST 27: Mike Wright #5 of the Vanderbilt Commodores is congratulated by Justin Ball #84 of the Vanderbilt Commodores after scoring a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA football game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at the Clarance T.C. Ching Athletic Complex on August 27, 2022 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images) /
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Florida Gators linebacker Jeremiah Moon (7) attempts to block a pass from Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Ken Seals (8) during the third quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 9, 2021.Flgai 100921 Gatorsfb Vanderbilt 6007 Mattpendleton
Florida Gators linebacker Jeremiah Moon (7) attempts to block a pass from Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Ken Seals (8) during the third quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 9, 2021.Flgai 100921 Gatorsfb Vanderbilt 6007 Mattpendleton /

Why it all means nothing

Winning more games than expected is always cool, but some of the main goals that come with doing so is carrying the success into both the offseason and the following year — neither of which are likely when considering Vandy’s current circumstances.

The first thing we have to remember is recruiting, which is something that the Commodores have seemingly never excelled in. It shouldn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that two single-digit wins over heavily flawed teams aren’t enough to win many recruits over, especially with them being followed by a 56-0 loss and another missed bowl season.

In fact, 247Sports still has Vanderbilt as a bottom-dweller in the SEC’s recruiting rankings after National Signing Day. And to be fair, based on the numbers that the site highlighted when doing so, such a ranking should be expected.

But hey, if recruiting stats meant everything, the Commodores wouldn’t have even beaten the SEC teams they did this year, so those alone shouldn’t set any tones. With that said, how good could Vandy do in 2023 with the on-field competitiveness that we’ve actually been able to see?

The Commodores get all four of their out-of-conference games out of the way in their first month and, luckily for them, it appears to be a rather weak stretch. The games are as follows: Hawaii, Alabama A&M, at Wake Forest, and at UNLV.

Only one of those games has Vanderbilt as a clear underdog, so let’s assume that its record is 3-1 entering league play. That means that the journey to a bowl berth is already halfway complete without the Commodores having to face a single SEC opponent — not bad.

What is bad is just how overwhelming conference play has consistently been for them, and that’s what makes predicting the remainder of their season such an unpleasant experience.

In 2023, Vandy’s SEC slate will have several games worthy of being circled on the calendar. Said games include not only hosting Georgia, but also visiting Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee. That bunch would be brutal in the eyes of any team, but in the eye of Vanderbilt, it is downright nightmarish.

That goes without even mentioning the games that could go either way, all of which are home games against potential threats like Kentucky (almost beat the Commodores this year), Missouri (did beat the Commodores this year), and Auburn (now has Hugh Freeze, a man who has already seen success in the SEC, at the helm).

Upon taking all of those upcoming battles into consideration, Vandy will seemingly have to cross its fingers to make the bowl season — the exact same situation it was in just last month.

When it comes to perennial underdogs like the Commodores, managing to get back-to-back victories over Kentucky and Florida gives them a lot of trash to talk. The only problem is that it gives them nothing more than that. If I were a betting man, I would not put my money on Vanderbilt making many moves next year.

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