How Nebraska, Wisconsin can take the Big Ten by storm

How gracious is Wisconsin’s schedule?

Looking at the Badgers, three of last year’s regular-season wins—with two being won by double-digit margins—were over squads they will face this year as well (Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska). They will also have two home games against mediocre Group of 5 schools (Buffalo and Georgia Southern) that they should easily take. This group alone can get Wisconsin to five wins.

As for its six losses, three were decided by seven points or less. Of those three, two were over opponents that it’ll also see again this fall (Washington State and Minnesota).

One of the more convincing losses was at Iowa, with the Hawkeyes winning 24-10. Despite that sounding rather concerning, recent memory tells me that Wisconsin actually has a much better chance of winning their 2023 battle than one might think.

There are a couple of interesting things to note about this rivalry’s latest handful of meetings: One is that the Badgers have taken eight of the last 11 (half of them being won by 11 points or more), the other is that this year’s matchup will be taking place in Madison—where they haven’t lost to the Hawkeyes since 2015. In other words, there is a very strong chance that Iowa’s edge over Wisconsin doesn’t make it to Halloween.

All of that brings the potential win total up to eight for the Badgers, but that means there are still four teams we have not yet covered: Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio State and Indiana. Don’t get too excited, though, these guys aren’t too difficult to tackle. We’ll start with tying a bow on the list of wins.

The Scarlet Knights are not only worse than the Badgers today, but they have been nothing more than punching bags every single time the two squads have faced off (one of four meetings decided by under 37 points). While the Hoosiers won their last run-in with Wisconsin by eight points, it was their first time winning in their lopsided rivalry since 2002—and they also currently suck. So in short, this duo will result in two more UW triumphs.

Illinois and Ohio State are where things get dicey

That just leaves Illinois and OSU, whose 2022 margins of victory over the Badgers average out to about 28 points. That doesn’t sound particularly encouraging for UW fans, and that’s because it isn’t.

To be frank, no one annihilates Wisconsin quite like the Buckeyes do. They lead their all-time series with the Badgers by an alarmingly uncompetitive 44 games (62-18-5). Along with that, the Badgers have prevailed in only one meeting since 2004.

Wisconsin is lucky enough to host the Buckeyes this year, and the last time it saw anything worse than a seven-point loss to them in Madison was all the way back in 2000. However, I simply cannot bring myself to humor a Badgers win in a series that is so one-sided. I’d be far more willing to consider Wisconsin’s chances of beating Illinois.

UW’s history with the Fighting Illini has been far more entertaining, with the former holding a narrow 44-38-7 advantage. Yet in the last 30 years, Illinois has failed to stand much of a chance, with last season’s victory being only their fifth in the rivalry since 1992.

It’s not easy to stare that mismatch in the face and give the Illini the nod, but I’m going to anyway. My reason for doing so ties back to just how good that fifth win was.

They downed the Badgers 34-10 in Madison; the point differential was the largest it’s been in the Illini’s favor since 1988. Them going back home in 2023 after looking that much better on the road in 2022 is impossible to ignore.

But, in spite of me giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt, my previous analysis still gives Wisconsin a decent shot to win as many as 10 games—a total that fans would unquestionably accept.

I can’t promise how either Nebraska or Wisconsin will do this year, but combining their quick-working coaches with their feasible schedules illustrates a beautiful opportunity for them to get their new eras started off right. And even if they can’t get things going quite that soon, it’s a safe bet that they’ll both be sitting amongst the best in the Big Ten by 2026 or so. When compared to what last season dealt them, I’d call that a rather fast turnaround.