Can 2023 Blue Devils football outshine the iconic MBB program?

The Duke Blue Devils have always been a basketball-first squad, but could we see an exception to that rule this fall?

Several athletic universities across the country develop reputations for specializing in a particular sport, and Duke is one of them. Thanks to an MBB program that has five national titles and an all-time winning percentage over .700 (70%), it’s undoubtedly earned its title of “basketball school.”

But just because a college excels in one sport doesn’t mean it has to suck in another; this is the lesson that Duke appears to have missed when it comes to its football program. While its basketball accolades can’t stop flowing in, its football team has set amongst the nation’s sorriest throughout the last 30 years—and that’s not being overdramatic. Just take a look at some of the stats that surround it.

Between 1993 and now, the Duke Blue Devils FB has seen just three seasons with nine wins or more (2013, 2014, and 2022). In that same span, it’s seen 10 seasons with two wins or less (four of which were winless). Especially when combining all of that with the fact that the aforementioned 2013 is still its only year ever to pass nine wins, Duke football is not simply bad, but downright terrible.

That staggering of a difference in historical quality has made it unbelievably easy for the school’s men’s basketball to outperform its football on an annual basis. For context, the last time Duke MBB finished with a lower winning percentage than Duke FB was at the end of its 1994-95 campaign (MBB finished at .419 in the spring after FB had finished at .667 in the fall)—and that’s where things get interesting.

How did the 2022-23 stretch change the optics of this mismatch?

Back in March, the Duke Blue Devils were eliminated in the second round of the men’s NCAA tournament by a 65-52 loss to Tennessee. The relatively early departure left them with a 27-9 record. That is in no way a bad result, but it locked their winning percentage in at .750.

As previously established, the university’s football team finished 2022 with nine of its 13 games in the win column, cementing its win percentage at a rare .692. That means that it was below the MBB squad’s by just .058; that’s the closest the two have been in a season since 2013, which we’ve already recognized as Duke FB’s greatest year ever (by win total).

With that closeness in mind, the question has to be asked: Can the 2023-24 stretch be one of the few to witness Duke’s football outshine its men’s basketball?

The method of answering said question is rather straightforward—look at the 2023 football schedule and see if it could realistically amount to a winning percentage of over .750 (with that being Duke MBB’s most recent percentage, it’s our best frame of reference for how the team sits today). In other words, see if the slate could realistically result in a record of 10-3 or better.

But, before we dive in, there are two things to note. Firstly, the term “outshine” should not come off as “be more nationally relevant than.” With men’s basketball having a bracket that is currently 64 slots wider than football’s, Duke will virtually always have a better shot at making a title run than the other.

Secondly, some of you may be wondering how we could conclude a 12-game analysis with a record of 10-3. Just know that if we find a strong likelihood of the Blue Devils going 9-3 in the regular season, such a record equals .750 exactly. At that point, we would need to throw in a bowl win to break the tie.

So without further ado, let’s get started.