It’s been a crazy week for college football conference realignment. The Big 12 and Big Ten have expanded, while the Pac-12 is on its last legs. Here are our takeaways from what’s happened so far, as well as what comes next.
Change has been coming in college football. In fact, conference realignment never really stopped — it only just paused.
The Big 12 lost Texas and Oklahoma only to respond by adding BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, as well as now Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.
Meanwhile, smelling blood in the water, the Big Ten made its move for Oregon and Washington. The Ducks and Huskies were the logical choices to add as the final football powers remaining in the Pac-12 conference.
Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, and Cal are now left out in the cold. Will two of them be added to the Big Ten? Could the state schools join the Big 12, while Stanford and Cal get a ticket to the Big Ten?
Or could the four Pac-12 schools merge with the Mountain West? Every possibility is on the table. Before we get to more predictions though, here are some takeaways from the latest round of college football conference realignment.
The Pac-12 is the big loser from college football conference realignment
No conference played their cards worse in college football conference realignment than the Pac-12 which waited way too long to put together a new media deal.
Once USC left, the league wasn’t going to be as attractive to media companies anymore. The Big 12 was smart to target Colorado and Arizona and once that move happened, it put Utah and Arizona State in a corner.
Those schools would have risked being left without a home if Oregon and Washinton left for the Big Ten, which they did, so the Utes and Sun Devils had to follow.
Now, just four teams remain in the Pac-12. There are basically two choices: merge with the Mountain West or join the Big 12 (if it even wants those schools).
My guess is that the Big 12 doesn’t care about Stanford, Cal, Washington State, or Oregon State. They could merge with the Mountain West and use the Pac-12 brand name, however, it’s not going to be worth much.
Stanford and Cal are probably holding out hope that the Big Ten will add them too, but outside of making easier travel partners for the four West Coast teams, there’s nothing to gain.
Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and even West Virginia might be more attractive to the Big Ten than Cal and Stanford.
Colorado, Arizona, AZU, Utah, Oregon, and Washington were all winners in college football conference realignment. But the Pac-12 conference and the holdovers are the biggest losers.
Thoughts on the new Big Ten
Winning the Big Ten championship is going to be even more difficult. The league added USC and UCLA, then turned around and added two West-coast programs that have made the College Football Playoff.
Oregon made it to the national championship before losing to Ohio State. Washington also made a playoff appearance and USC was right on the cusp in 2022.
In terms of what it means going forward, for one, the Big Ten will need to adjust its schedule. The conference had a new scheduling format released for 2024 and 2025.
But Washington and Oregon are joining prior to the 2024 season, so will there be pods? Divisions? One Big 18-team league where the top two teams meet for the conference title?
Will the Big Ten make a push for 20? It wouldn’t shock me at this point. Cal and Stanford would make sense academically and in terms of geography. Then you could have a 10-team West division and a 10-team East division.
That’s all hypothetical. However, I have a hard time believing that the Big Ten is finished when it comes to college football conference realignment.
What’s next for the SEC, and the rest of college football?
So far the SEC has been pretty quiet in college fooball conference realignment and you wonder how long that will be the case.
Florida State is openly talking about leaving the ACC and why would the Seminoles want to stay the terrible media rights deal the conference is stuck with?
Florida and South Carolina might not like it, but adding Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina would make a ton of sense. Maybe even adding Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pittsburgh would follow as the SEC could build a dynamic football/basketball league.
The arms race in college football conference realignment is between the Big Ten and the SEC. There’s no question about it. There’s going to be a Big Two and a Group of however many conferences are left.
There will be the Big 12, maybe a new Pac-12 (leftovers plus Mountain West) and maybe there will be a merger of sorts between the Sun Belt, Conference USA, and American leagues at some point.
Three or four 24-team conferences is probably where things are headed. Or maybe we are headed for a Premier League of college football with 30-40 teams.
Either way, I’d be stunned if the Big Ten/SEC didn’t add more teams in the next year. As we have seen this all happens quickly and as we learned with the Pac-12, waiting too long can have very real consequences.
I’d also expect a change in the new playoff format. Not the number of 12, but the number of automatic bids. It could shrink by one or two once this is all said and done to open up more at-large berths for the two super college football conferences — the Big Ten and SEC.