The fatal flaw with every College Football Playoff Top 10 team after first rankings

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the year were released this week, and while all the teams bunched near the top are ultimately talented, they are also flawed.

The Georgia Bulldogs are obviously on a great run, winning the last two national championships, but a lot of talent has departed for the NFL and the Bulldogs have looked a bit shaky at times this year. Kirby Smart has had to break in a new quarterback, Carson Beck, so for once Georgia might be vulnerable.

In fact, all of the top teams have weaknesses, which has made for a very fun college football season so far. There are only five unbeaten teams left at the top of college football and behind that, a group of great one-loss teams, each with a fatal flaw.

One of these flawed teams has to win it all, but I’m here to tell you why each of the top 10 teams in the first College Football Playoff rankings won’t.

No. 10 Ole Miss – Judkins sophomore slump

In 2022, the Ole Miss Rebels should’ve borrowed “Runnin’ Rebels” moniker from UNLV. Lane Kiffin’s offense was runnin’ the ball at military academy levels, averaging 258.3 rushing yards per game, only behind Air Force and ahead of Army and Navy. Most of that was because of his superstar freshman Quinshon Judkins.

Judkins ran for 1,567 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. That’s crazy efficiency for a freshman at that volume. This year, instead of taking the next step, he’s taken a step back, only averaging 4.7 yards per carry and just 98.7 yards on the ground per game.

Ole Miss is 28th in rushing offense and 47th in yards per rush. That puts a lot more responsibility on the shoulders of Jaxson Dart. Dart has been up to the task, leading to the 23rd-ranked passing offense. Dart is completing 64.2% of his passes with an average of 9.8 yards per attempt and 14 touchdowns to four interceptions.

No. 9 – Oklahoma – Dillon Gabriel’s supporting cast

There’s no question that Dillon Gabriel is the star of the show in Norman, but I’m not sure who would take home the award for best supporting actor. OU is still seventh in total offense but is 70th in yards per rush and 46th in yards per completion.

Last week against Kansas, the Sooners finally found their running game with Tawee Walker who ran for 146 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, but their leading receiver was Drake Stoops (I wonder how Oklahoma found out about him?) who had four catches for 76 yards. The nepo baby receiver is actually pretty solid, but shouldn’t be leading a top-10 team in catches

For the year, Jalil Farooq is No. 1 on the team in yardage with 26 catches for 449 yards, but Stoops has just 394 yards on 40 grabs. There simply isn’t a lot of talent surrounding Gabriel on this offense and it caused the star quarterback to go 14 of 19 passing for just 171 yards and an interception in the team’s only loss.

Oklahoma’s schedule hasn’t been overly challenging other than the Red River Rivalry win. In that game, Gabriel did everything for the offense with 285 passing yards and a touchdown and led the team with 113 rushing yards and another score on 14 carries. He needs to be a superhero for the Sooners to compete with the best teams in the country, or even just beat Kansas.

No. 8 Alabama – The O-Line

It’s easy to pin all of Alabama’s offensive problems on the quarterback, but since being benched against USF, Jalen Milroe has been pretty solid for Nick Saban. Milroe is a lot like a young Jalen Hurts at Alabama, he struggles to string together completions but can move the chains with his legs and has five rushing touchdowns, and his biggest strength is deep passing.

Milroe is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt despite only completing 64.5% of his passes. He is third among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks with an average depth of target of 14.3. Jermaine Burton has emerged as his favorite target and he’s starting to excel. Still, Alabama’s offense is 81st in the country, only averaging 5.9 yards per play which ranks 59th, and is 78th in passing yards per game.

That’s due in large part to the struggles of this offensive line. Bama has an oversized line that struggles to pass block, allowing pressure on 39.1% of Milroe’s dropbacks. That line is built to run block, but it can’t do that either. Bama ranks 78th in rushing offense and 98th in yards per rush.

Milroe even survives against pressure and is first in the country in yards per attempt against pressure among quarterbacks with at least 30 pressured dropbacks, a sample size of 158 QBs, but that group will be this team’s undoing.

No. 7 Texas – Being back

Texas is back, we’ve heard it dozens of times since the Longhorns won the national championship under Mack Brown in 2005, and every time, it hasn’t been true. Are we sure that this team is different?

Steve Sarkisian has done a great job building up this Texas program since taking over, but the Longhorns already blew their biggest game of the season against Oklahoma. The good news is they’ll have a chance to avenge that loss in the Big 12 championship if Oklahoma is good enough to meet them there.

However, Texas climbed as high as No. 6 in 2018, No. 9 in 2019, and No. 8 in 2020, and faded down the stretch. There’s a lot of pressure that comes with winning in Austin, and we’ll have to see if Sark is ready for it.

Oh, and Quinn Ewers is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing shoulder. That’s not great either.

No. 6 Oregon – Dan Lanning’s decision-making

I love an aggressive head coach and the Oregon Ducks certainly have one. Against the Washington Huskies in 2022 a fourth-down decision cost his team a win and then three fourth-down decisions in Week 7 of this season left him with the same result, another loss to the Huskies.

The worst of his three decisions came before the half in Seattle with his team down 22-18. The Ducks got to the three-yard line, but instead of taking the points before receiving the second-half kickoff, Lanning opted to go for it and the Ducks were stopped.

The other two decisions weren’t great, but were at least defensible. There is no argument for that call. Part of the reason that analytics favor going for it over kicking near the goalline is because you pin your opponent deep and are likely to get another shot with good field position. That advantage is completely gone right before the half.

I won’t get too deep into his other fourth-down calls because again, I like an aggressive head coach. Lanning just borders on reckless and it already cost his team a three-point loss.

The Ducks outgained the Huskies 541-415 and had 32 first downs to just 24. They deserved to win that game. If Oregon had beaten Washington and still dominated Utah, the Ducks would have had a very real argument to be the No. 1 team in the country, instead, they’re sixth.

No. 5 Washington – The run game

It’s easy to just say the defense, but the way this Washington team and the rest of the Pac-12 is built, I’m actually more worried about the Huskies scoring too quickly than their ability to get a stop. That’s because they’re not likely to get a stop against Oregon or USC, but really who is?

We saw this exact thing play out against Oregon, Michael Penix Jr. threw a touchdown to Rome Odunze to take a 36-33 lead with 1:38 left, and it was too fast. Oregon moved the ball right down the field but missed the tying field goal.

Washington is 99th in total defense and 46th in yards per play allowed. The Huskies play in a conference with plenty of high-powered offenses and Kalen Deboer has built this team to outscore his opponents. That defense is good enough when your offense ranks fifth overall and second in yards per play at 8.0.

Michael Penix Jr.’s passing game is first in the country averaging 399.0 yards per game and Penix is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt. That’s essentially a first down every drop back, but the Huskies aren’t very balanced. They rank 119th in rushing offense, 132nd in rushing attempts, and 68th in yards per rush.

This team can build a lead on anyone, but the question is, can they protect it? Defense is one way to do that, but my bigger worry is if they can sustain drives on offense to close games out. With Georgia beating Ohio State 42-41 and TCU beating Michigan 51-45 in last year’s playoff, we learned that even the best defenses in the country are no match for the best offensive attacks.

No. 4 Florida State – Big Plays

Florida State looks like it will make it to the ACC Championship game undefeated and with Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson on the outside, the Seminoles create plenty of big plays, but this year they’ve also given up their fair share. That’s the big weakness of this team.

Mike Norvell’s group is 30th in total defense, which is solid, and even better at 28th in yards per play. The defense allows the lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks at 49.4% but is 96th in yards per completion allowed at 12.6. Teams aren’t sustaining drives on them, but they are hitting the big shot. In some ways that’s even worse.

Florida State ranks 56th in 20+ yard plays given up with 34 and 20 of those have been through the air. It’s not a massive issue, but we saw with TCU beating Michigan last season, that if a lesser team converts on a few big plays, they can flip a game and end up in the national championship game.

No. 3 Michigan – The crime and the cover-up

The situation at Michigan was bad this offseason when Jim Harbaugh was self-imposing a three-game suspension at the start of the year over allegations of recruiting violations and now, it’s worse… a lot worse.

Jim Harbaugh and the entire Michigan program are under fire for allegations of a sign-stealing scheme either orchestrated or performed by a low-level staffer, Connor Stallions. Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating Harbaugh’s former offensive coordinator Matt Weiss in an unrelated matter.

On the field, this team might be even better than Georgia. Still, off the field, the coaching staff is probably something like Henry Hill’s crew in the second half of Goodfellas with Harbaugh running around like Jimmy “The Gent” making sure nobody talks.

In reality, there probably isn’t much that’s going to come from all of these investigations except for a possible suspension for Harbaugh next season. That still hurts this year’s team because it’s swirling around the program and it’s easy for 18-22 year olds to get caught up in distractions. As a 22-year-old myself, I should know.

Other than that, this Michigan team has been unbelievably impressive. J.J. McCarthy has played pristine football and is on the same level as all of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Wolverines haven’t played anybody yet, but when you’re this good, you never play anyone on your level.

No. 2 Georgia – Boredom

You could say that there are concerns about Carson Beck, or you’re worried about the lack of wide receivers on this offense, but the only true enemy of Kirby Smart’s budding dynasty is complacency.

Beck is second in the SEC in QBR, only behind Jayden Daniels, who has been unbelievably good and is second in the country. Beck is 10th in the country, and his EPA of 53.4 is eighth best, just behind Caleb Williams and ahead of Michael Penix Jr. Nobody would dare say those players are the weakness of their teams. That’s how good Georgia’s roster is.

The Bulldogs are fourth in total offense and sixth in yards per play, gaining 7.2. They have the 48th-ranked rushing offense and fourth-best passing offense in the country. Even without Brock Bowers last week, Georgia put up 43 points on Florida, gained 7.4 yards per play, and Beck threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns.

Sure, they need some help at wide receiver, especially in Bowers’ absence, but Ladd McConkey looked dominant last week and Dominic Lovett has been a reliable security blanket for Beck.

Up front, Beck has only been pressured on 15.8% of his dropbacks and is still averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The offensive line is great and we know how good this defense is, even after losing a lot of talent from last season’s group.

When Georgia won the national championship last year the entire team couldn’t stop talking about how nobody believed in them. That couldn’t be farther from the truth, but Kirby did a great job making his team believe it. Boredom is Georgia’s biggest obstacle and Kirby has a great game plan for that too. Getting ranked No. 2 after back-to-back championships should help his cause.

No. 1 Ohio State – Pressure on McCord

No, I’m not talking about the pressure to follow in the footsteps of CJ Stroud who was incredible in his final game as a Buckeye in the CFP last year and is now setting the NFL on fire as a rookie. I’m talking about actual pressure on Kyle McCord when he’s dropping back to pass.

McCord hasn’t been CJ Stroud, but he’s been serviceable for Ohio State, some numbers would say he’s been a whole lot better than just serviceable. McCord is fifth in the country in QBR at 83.4 with an EPA of 38.9 which ranks 22nd. However, when he gets pressured that all falls apart.

McCord has been pressured the 68th most times of any quarterback in the country with 100 or more dropbacks. The Ohio State offensive line only gives up a 28.1% pressure rate, and he is 29th in the country in pressure-to-sack percentage at 11.3% which is excellent. The problem is when he does throw under pressure, he makes a lot of mistakes.

So far this season, McCord has seven “turnover-worthy plays” when under pressure despite only throwing two of his three interceptions. Against pressure, he’s only completing 36.7% of his passes and averaging 3.8 yards per attempt which ranks 146th among quarterbacks who have been pressured on at least 25 dropbacks this year. Of the 68 quarterbacks who have been pressured at least 70 times, McCord is 64th in yards per attempt, 60th in completion percentage, and 13th in turnover-worthy plays.

Marvin Harrison Jr. solves a lot of problems on an offense, but he can’t block for his quarterback and catch his bad passes. Ryan Day needs to figure out a way to improve his quarterback’s numbers under pressure or he’ll sink the Buckeyes’ season.

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