3. Saban’s Iron Bowl track record
In the buildup to this game, there’s been plenty of talk about the trouble that Saban’s Alabama has had at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Of SEC West opponents, his lowest winning percentage is against Auburn, and four of his five Iron Bowl defeats have come at Auburn.
If you dive deeper into those four games, you’ll find there’s one key difference between those Tiger teams and this 2023 squad. In 2007, they won nine games. In 2013, they won 12. In 2017, ten games. In 2019, nine games again.
In years like 2017 and 2019, Alabama was a better football team who had a better season, but Auburn had the talent, along with the home-field advantage, to win the Iron Bowl.
Jordan-Hare voodoo doesn’t win these games on its own. It contributes to games that are closer than they need to be.
The 2023 Auburn team is not close to the level of those four teams. It is 6-5, it doesn’t have an SEC win against a team with a winning record, and it just got beatdown at home by New Mexico State.
Hugh Freeze is recruiting well, and maybe come 2025, the Tigers ride some Jordan-Hare shenanigans to an Iron Bowl win, but this year? It’s hard to see this Auburn team doing much more than covering the spread through the back door.