Best-case scenarios for all 8 College Football Playoff contenders
2. Michigan football
The Wolverines are in a really good spot after beating Ohio State. They control their own destiny just like Georgia and if they beat Iowa, the only question will be seeding.
That’s also going to be important. Nobody wants to play Oregon in the semifinals. There’s a reason the Ducks are nearly a double-digit favorite against Washington.
However, unless Georgia goes down, Michigan isn’t going to get the No. 1 seed. And even if that happens, Georgia might be the No. 4, which would negate any advantage of being No. 1.
Therefore, the best-case scenario is just to win. A loss by Florida State wouldn’t hurt Michigan’s chances of making it with a loss. In fact, chalk probably helps Michigan in that regard.
If the Noles lose, but Georgia wins, then you have the Bulldogs, along with the Pac-12 champion both in. Then, the last two spots would be up to Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, and Washington.
My feeling is that Michigan would be in, along with probably Texas. I believe the Horns will jump the Buckeyes with a Big 12 championship win, although it’s hard to say for sure. Regardless, Ohio State isn’t making the College Football Playoff unless Michigan does.
So Michigan football fans should root for Georgia, Louisville, and Oklahoma State, which is led by former U-M backup QB Alan Bowman. The worst-case scenario for Michigan is Alabama beating Georgia, plus Florida State winning.
If that happens, Florida State and the Pac-12 champ will be in. Then the last two spots would come down to Alabama (SEC champ), Georgia, Texas, and Michigan. Even a Texas loss in that situation doesn’t make me feel good, because if it comes down to it, the committee will choose 12-1 Georgia over 12-1 Michigan.
It might sound counter-intuitive but Michigan fans actually want Georgia to win this weekend. It actually makes it more likely that the Wolverines make it with a loss. Plus, if Georgia loses and Michigan wins, a first-round matchup, which you don’t want as Michigan, could be on the table.
Best-case scenario: Win plus Georgia getting knocked out of playoff.