For the Ducks, it’s pretty simple: win and you’re in. Oregon is actually going to jump Florida State in my opinion to get the No. 3 seed if both teams win.
You could make the argument that the committee would still rank Oregon ahead of Ohio State, even if the Ducks lost this weekend. Both teams finished the regular season 11-1 and the committee ranked Oregon ahead.
Would the Ducks really get punished for losing a game on championship weekend, when Ohio State was the only team in the top eight not to play?
That seems unfair and the committee didn’t punish TCU last season. At the same time, Oregon will have lost to Washington twice and I don’t see Oregon overcoming that. The Buckeyes lost a one-possession game on the road to the No. 2 team and if the Ducks lose, they are done in my opinion.
Best-case scenario: Win and have Georgia and Michigan lose to get No. 1 seed.