6. Ohio State
I’ll admit, Ohio State getting ranked behind Oregon isn’t a good sign. Getting ranked above Texas does seem like a good sign, but it’s really hard to find a path for Ohio State to the College Football Playoff without a couple of upsets.
Florida State needs to lose. Ohio State also needs Texas to lose. Otherwise, it seems likely that Texas will leapfrog the Buckeyes. It’s not a guarantee though. Will beating Oklahoma State again, especially if the game is close, be enough to get Texas over the hump?
If Florida State gets upset, but the favorites hold serve the field would be Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, and either Ohio State, Texas, or Washington. Washington has a similar argument to Ohio State, depending on how the Pac-12 title game goes.
Texas has the win over Alabama, but if that Alabama team finishes with two losses, it might not mean as much, especially if Georgia wins going away. Ohio State could hold its advantage over Texas but unless Florida State is upset, it won’t matter.
A win by Alabama also makes it nearly impossible for the Buckeyes to make it. Alabama will jump them, and on the strength of beating Alabama, Texas probably will too.
Best-case scenario: Florida State is upset, Washington wins, and Texas loses.