The Mountain West is no stranger to producing high-quality teams. Of course, the headliner is Boise State, but guys like San Diego State and Fresno State have also had their moments in the sun. Yet there’s another name that appeared to be flirting with similar success, and that’s Air Force.
With four of their five seasons from 2019 to 2023 seeing nine wins or more, it’s safe to say that the Falcons weren’t exactly frauds; they had hit a level of consistency that cemented them in the top tier of the MWC. However, that all changed in 2024.
Last season had Air Force not just tumble down a game or two, but completely plummet to a 5-7 finish, with six of those losses being decided by double-digit margins.
The collapse was sudden and violent, and left everyone wondering for months what in the world had gone wrong. But, with the 2025-26 season getting underway in mere weeks, it’s now time to look at the likelihood of things going right. With that said, let’s see what kind of campaign awaits the Falcons, shall we?
Air Force’s season starts about as calmly as possible
Luckily for Air Force, its first five weeks could hardly be easier, as all they include are Bucknell, a bye, Utah State, Boise State and Hawaii.
The only opponent in that stretch to hold heavy odds of downing the Falcons is BSU, but even that showdown will be taking place in Colorado Springs.
Don’t get me wrong, I still expect the Broncos to get the dub, but with it having to be done on the road, it hopefully won’t be as lopsided of an encounter as many would probably expect. If the Falcons can take care of the rest, that would make for a healthy 3-1 start—not bad.
What is bad, though, is just how jarring of a shift they are set to endure beyond that point, and it begins with a trip to Annapolis.
Navy kicks off a nightmarish stretch for the Falcons
The Midshipmen were one of college football’s biggest stunners last year, and with Air Force facing them far away from home, its shot at victory is in no way a clear one. Directly afterwards comes an even-taller order through UNLV in Vegas.
The Falcons do get somewhat of a breather thanks to both a home game against Wyoming and a second bye, but the punches proceed to pick right back up with Army and San José State, the latter of which is being faced on the road.
Speaking of away games, two of their final three battles are in enemy territory as well. The opposition? UConn and Colorado State. What do those two have in common? They finished 2024 with eight wins or more. Not ideal.
One good thing is that the pair is bridged by a date with the New Mexico Lobos, who should hopefully be manageable enough to give Air Force a reassuring victory in its final home game. But even when marking them down for the win column, it’s too little too late as the Falcons still come away with a losing tally (another 5-7)—and mind you, that’s without considering any chances of “trap games.”
So, is 2025 Air Force going to give its fans a dramatic turnaround and join its fellow military academies in the winners’ circle? Regardless of how patriotically poetic that would be, I’d have to assume no.