Over the last several years, the Fresno State Bulldogs have been one of the Group of 5’s more promising brands, having suffered only one losing season since 2016…at least until last year, when the Bulldogs finished with an unfortunate tally of 6-7.
However, while that result is less than ideal, it doesn’t necessarily imply a descent for the program going forward. This is because of three main factors: One is that almost all of Fresno State’s 2024 losses were decided by narrow margins, two is the fact that it now has a new-look coaching staff, and most importantly three, its 2025 slate is unbelievably easy.
The journey starts with a trip to Kansas, and while the Jayhawks suffered a struggle of their own last season, they still proved on multiple occasions that they weren’t to be trifled with. Therefore, it’s likely the Bulldogs will kick things off with defeat. After that, though? Victory will hardly ever be that difficult to achieve.
The next several opponents before Fresno State’s first of three bye weeks are Georgia Southern, Oregon State in Corvallis (which could be tricky but, again, no worse than Kansas), Southern, and consistent stinker Hawaii in Honolulu. So, it seems like a 4-1 start is very much possible.
The Bulldogs see a trace of adversity in MWC competition after the first bye—but just a trace
After the first bye, they’ve only got two more games before their second one: Nevada and at Colorado State. The Wolfpack, similarly to the Rainbow Warriors, are a lower-end power in Mountain West play more often than not, so they should go down rather easy when on the road and facing a rested Bulldogs squad. But CSU? That’s a different story.
The Rams just won eight games, have a particularly sturdy home-field advantage, and scared the heck out of Fresno State in 2024, despite it playing under far better circumstances than what it’ll have this time around. With that said, I got the Rams giving us loss #2.
Between that and the final stretch, we have a bit of a copy-and-paste moment, as the Bulldogs are once again dealt a two-game package bookended by open weeks, with the first (hosting San Diego State) being a probable rise and the second (stepping into Boise State) a probable fall. That gives the Bulldogs a 6-3 count as they head into their final breather—but don’t worry, because with all that remains on the calendar, they shouldn’t really need it.
After their third bye, matters grow quite forgivable for the Bulldogs
Fresno State’s next two meetings are against Wyoming and Utah State, both of which suffered hideous fall-offs last year, and will be playing in Fresno. And after them, for the finale, comes a matchup with rival San Jose State in enemy territory.
That one’s a bit iffy at surface level, as the Spartans have finished positive in four of the last five seasons, yet they have a losing record against the Bulldogs in that span, including a 23-point loss in 2024. With that in mind, would I bet my life that Fresno State will win in 2025? Maybe not, but I’d rather do that than roll those same dice for SJSU.
In total, that means I have the Fresno State Bulldogs finishing their upcoming regular season 9-3, with enough momentum to hit 10 wins in their bowl game, if not the MWC title game. That sounds like an acceptable program revival to me.