College Football Playoff Round 1 best bets

Jeremiah Smith #4 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates after his touchdown reception against the Michigan Wolverines with Emeka Egbuka #2 during the second quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 30, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio.
Jeremiah Smith #4 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates after his touchdown reception against the Michigan Wolverines with Emeka Egbuka #2 during the second quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 30, 2024 in Columbus, Ohio. | Jason Mowry/GettyImages

The moment we have all been waiting for. The first 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night followed by three more quarterfinal games on Saturday.

Despite most of these teams not having played in over two weeks, stakes are at an all-time high in these win or go home games. 

Even though all of these games feature a spread of more than a touchdown, this is college football, so expect the unexpected.

Without further adieu here are the best bets in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals:

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Season Record: (66-75)

Notre Dame -7.5 (-102) vs Indiana

What better way to kickoff the CFP than a matchup between two same state schools who have not met on the gridiron since 1991. These are two very similar teams in my eyes, but I think what Notre Dame has done since falling to NIU has not been talked about enough. 

Since that loss the Irish have beat opponents by an average margin of 30.7 points and their offense has really stepped up.

Now I know Indiana has been beating teams in a similar fashion all year long and I think they keep this game competitive, but Riley Leonard takes control in the 4th and ND wins by two scores.

Penn State -8.5 (-112) vs SMU

This one could very well be a complete blowout, whomping, beatdown. I just flat out do not think SMU is that good and they have made it to this spot by playing in a mediocre ACC conference. 

James Franklin and Penn State finally get a chance to win a big game against someone other than Ohio State or Michigan (and now Oregon) and they will take full advantage of that. 

While SMU does have one of the top rush defenses in the nation, they have not faced anyone near the level of this Penn State front and running back duo. The Nittany Lions currently rank 16th in rushing YPG while the Mustangs have not faced anyone better than 45th in that category. 

The Penn State offense rolls while their top-10 defense remains stout in an easy victory.

Clemson +11.5 (-105) at Texas and Under 51.5 (-108)

Dabo will want to make this one physical and ugly and I believe he succeeds at that. After just sneaking into the playoff with an automatic conference championship bid the Tigers got to have all the confidence in the world.

Clemson will stay in this game with Cade Klubnik’s ability to run and throw which can keep the Texas offense off the field.

Overall ,this Texas O had a great season, but they have really slowed down lately and especially in the SEC Championship game where they seemed to turn incompetent anytime they crossed the 30-yard line. 

Texas wins but the Tigers keep this one inside of the number in a low-scoring battle.

Ohio State -7.5 (-105) vs Tennessee 

My favorite pick of the weekend. This Ohio State team has to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field after losing to Michigan and I think they come out with a huge chip on their shoulder.

The comparison of Tennessee to Michigan and how that will give OSU trouble just does not make sense to me. While the Tennessee run game is very good, the Buckeyes rank 6th in rush defense and outside of a handful of plays, they played the run well in that season finale. 

Look for Chip Kelly to air it out to Ohio State’s stud receivers and hurt the Vols through the air just like Georgia did with 347 passing yards against Tennessee.

While all the X’s and O’s and stats do matter, I believe the Buckeyes are going into this playoff angry and that will show when they welcome an SEC opponent into cold Columbus and get a big win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change | Frank Sciarroni is 66-75 ATS in CFB

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