Heading into the 2025 College Football season, the American Athletic Conference appears set to be one of the most exciting conferences in the Country. The Conference looked like it was Tulane's for the taking until the final weeks of the season, when they lost to Memphis and Army in the Conference Championship. This season, there's a clear frontrunner again but we've been shown time and time again to expect the unexpected in this Conference.
1. Memphis Enters as the Clear Favorite
Memphis has been rock solid for a few years in a row now with some calling them the Ole Miss of the AAC. Take that for what it’s worth but that basically speaks to the consistency of this team under Ryan Silverfield. Athlon Sports ranks them 6th in their AAC forecast and D-Ratings gives them a projected 6.3 conference wins. SP+ odds reinforce this, with Memphis holding a 33.6% chance to win the AACthe highest in the league. This team has to be considered title contenders for their conference until proven otherwise but this year won't be as easy not having veteran starter at QB Seth Hennigan on the roster anymore.
2. UTSA & Tulane Follow Close Behind
UTSA is a step behind Memphis with a 20.4% title probability and Athlon slots them second.
Tulane also shows promise and is ranked third in odds and dubbed a defensive force despite their offense needing more consistency. UTSA ended the year strong and having another year with Owen McCown will keep them ultra competitive and in every game they play this year. Tulane is in the same category as Memphis with a little bit of a retool but can’t count them out with how great they are at developing. It will be very interesting to see how they compete without Darian Mensah and Makhai Hughes both leaving via the portal.
3. Mid-Tier Contenders: USF & East Carolina
South Florida is projected near the top of the mid-pack with 5.7 conference wins per D-Ratings. East Carolina, with solid quarterback play and momentum from a late ’24 surge, is also in the mix for 4–5 wins. Kaitin Houser can take a massive leap this year after showing great improvements throughout the year last season. USF will need to continue building hoping to break through the mid-tier they’ve been apart of for quite some time now.
4. Consistent Competitors: Army, Navy & North Texas
- Army looks steady under Coach Monken after a strong 2024 (12–2, undefeated conference), though projections suggest a slight dip (~3.3 conference wins). A slight dip is fair since they don’t have the touchdown machine Bryson Daily anymore under center.
- Navy, with its veteran offense, also projects to around 3.1–3.2 league wins, but poses upside with quarterback Blake Horvath and a strong returning roster. If Horvath can stay healthy watch out for this Navy team to be sneaky conference contenders showing they can mix with some of the better teams being ranked at one point last season.
- North Texas, with a revamped passing game, could threaten the upper middle—but is still seen as a fringe contender (projected ~4 wins). New QB Reese Poffenbarger and other transfers look to keep the normal North Texas offense humming like usual. If they can get any sort of defense this year watch out.
5. Rebuilds & Longshots
Programs like Tulsa, Temple, Charlotte, Rice, UAB, and Florida Atlantic are undergoing rebuilding cycles under new coaches and transfers. They’re projected in the lower half of the conference, with preseason rankings placing them between 9th and 14th. One team to watch for is FAU with Caden Veltkamp under center now. He was a top transfer target for some teams this offseason and his tenure at Western Kentucky was impressive.
Key Storylines to Watch
1. Memphis/Tulane questions
Both of these powerhouse programs in the AAC have shown dominance over the years staying on top of the competition. Can they weather the storm of the transfer portal taking their top talents away? That will be the underlying question.
2. UTSA’s Momentum
Coming off a breakout 2024, they challenge to stay near the top, especially with new NIL rules shaping the conference. They’re offense will be one of the best in the conference and possibly even the nation if they can put it all together.
3. Navy’s Stability
With most of its key pieces returning, Navy’s experienced roster gives them a solid chance to push for a championship bid. Navy’s stability puts them over Army in the public’s eye but make no doubt about it each team will have that last week of their season circled as always.
4. Rebuild Watch
New regimes at Tulsa, Temple, Charlotte, and UAB could result in surprise upsets or season struggles. Early results will be telling to see where these teams are at in their rebuilds.
Final Thoughts
Expect a dynamic 2025 AAC season: Memphis leads as favorite, with UTSA and Tulane positioned close behind. Nobody saw the success coming from Navy and Army last season. Which teams can surprise the same way this season? Which teams will rise and who will fall? The conference depth, from Army and Navy’s disciplined systems to East Carolina’s rising offense promises a competitive middle tier, while rebuilding programs add intrigue. Expect the unexpected in another wild college football season.