GENERAL OVERVIEW ~
Series: Tied 9-9 (1 tie)
Record: ND 13-1 (loss to NIU), PSU 12-2 (losses to Ohio State and Oregon)
Stats:
PPG: ND 39.4, PSU 35.1
3rd Down Efficiency: ND 38.5%, PSU 47%
Net Passing Yards Per Game: ND 189.1, PSU 234.1
Rushing Yards Per Game: ND 217.5, PSU 202.2
Turnover Margin: ND +1.3 (#2), PSU +0.7 (#18)
Takeaways Per Game: ND 2.2 (#5), PSU 1.6 (#40)
ANALYSIS ~
The writing on the wall is very clear: Both teams present a similar playstyle that reflects complementary football. In hindsight, the efficiency of both teams is quite reflective of “weaker” schedules. Obviously, the numbers will spike against lesser opponents, but the truth lies behind the dominance.
The most noteworthy stat here is the bottom piece. Turnover margin and takeaways will likely define this game and place the mark on who the winner and loser are. Offensively, these teams have shown to have an imprint on the game. The major difference comes within the passing and running games. Notre Dame’s identity is evident, the Irish are a “ground and pound team” and will run the ball until the line into the end zone is crossed.
The Irish have two lead running backs who can break a huge run to the end zone at any moment. Those names to be familiar with are Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. This all goes without mentioning Riley Leonard, who is an 831-yard rusher himself. There are weapons all over the Irish offense, but this team is built on the foundation of the defense. It's one of the most gritty defenses in college football.
The ultimate victory will be decided based on what Penn State can do offensively. Drew Allar has made significant strides in his game since last season. Ahead of the 2024-25 season Allar had flaws in his decision-making and pass accuracy that needed to be addressed. Long and behold, the Nittany Lions hired Andy Kotelnicki as the new offensive coordinator and Allar has become the gem in Penn State’s flashy offense.
This game would be more suited for Notre Dame if it stays low-scoring. Marcus Freeman and Al Golden are going to want a similar outcome to the Georgia game. For Notre Dame to win, the Irish will have to convert on third down and tire out the Penn State defense. The backbone of the Nittany Lion defense is Abdul Carter, with Carter being listed as a “game-time decision” Notre Dame will have to exploit Penn State’s tough run block that held Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty in check for 60 minutes of football.
As far as Penn State goes. This is likely the best offense Notre Dame has faced all year. Notre Dame has shown that if they can win the battle up-front they will win the game. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will have to make plays and establish the run game early. If Penn State can do this, Drew Allar’s passing game can become a rapid threat. The biggest exploit will be Christian Gray who has consistently been the victim of down-field shots. Allar will need enough time to take those shots, but if he can escape the pocket, use his feet, and make magic down-field, he will get Notre Dame on their heels. What Penn State cannot afford is pressure. This is Drew Allar’s kryptonite and could be a key factor.
NOTABLE MATCH-UPS ~
Tyler Warren vs. Xavier Watts
Penn State’s biggest weapon is undoubtedly Tyler Warren. On all levels, this guy is a nightmare matchup. Defense’s have found trouble containing this guy, and rightfully so. Warren has accounted for 1,158 yards on 98 receptions and 8 touchdowns. It’s been a remarkable senior campaign for number 44.
On the other side of this is Xavier Watts, the all-pro safety who once played both sides of the ball. Watts emerged last season, leading the nation in interceptions with 7. As the lone remaining captain of the defense, Watts bears an even greater responsibility and difficult task in being at the forefront of a physical Notre Dame team.
One of the biggest questions heading into this game is who would line up against Tyler Warren. I believe Notre Dame’s best option for that task is Xavier Watts. I highly doubt Notre Dame will match up against Warren with one player, but it’ll certainly get interesting to see these two collide in the secondary.
If I were Notre Dame, I would rather not see Watts and Warren meet in the middle of the field. The more the Irish can limit Warren, the better. Al Golden will play to his strengths and draw up schemes to force the ball into someone else’s hands.
Jeremiyah Love/ND rushing attack vs. Abdul Carter/PSU defensive front
This matchup is arguably one of the most equally dominant meetings we’ve seen all year. We’re talking about two heavyweights. It should be noted that Abdul Carter is nursing a “left arm/shoulder” injury in which he may not be available on Thursday. Even with James Franklin anticipating Carter to play, it’s likely that he won’t be one hundred percent.
As mentioned, Notre Dame will have to exploit this. The question now becomes, who can step up and make plays? If it’s anything like the Boise State effort, Penn State will need all the manpower it can get.
Likewise, Notre Dame will need all the manpower. Following the Georgia game, Jeremiyah Love had an apparent knee injury. Love rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries and since then has been practicing with a knee brace. So once again, who can step up and make plays?
I find a hard time believing that Love and Price will only combine for 56 yards once again, but last week we saw someone else rise to the occasion when it mattered most, and that was Riley Leonard. Notre Dame essentially has a three-headed monster in the rush attack, while Penn State also has a furious defensive front led by Abdul Carter.
Look for Tony Rojas, Jayden Reed, Kobe King, and Dominic DeLuca to make an impact. Penn State will need these guys and more to step up, not only to prevent the run but also to limit Riley Leonard’s options downfield. This is a Notre Dame team that rides the momentum all the way through the finish. That momentum is centered entirely around the run game. If Penn State can find a way to limit that, we should be in for a very tight contest.
X-FACTORS ~
Notre Dame: Adon Shuler
The key to victory remains the same for Notre Dame. I likely could’ve picked anyone on the defense, but after the Georgia game, it became very clear that the Irish needed to create pressure and get after the quarterback. With so many injuries on the defensive line, that demand is now much higher.
The only veteran that remains on Notre Dame’s defensive line is Howard Cross III. As expected, Georgia took Cross out of the game early and made other guys make plays. Aside from Jack Kiser and Xavier Watts, Notre Dame will yet again, require a supporting cast.
I was a major fan of Jordan Clark and Junior Tuihalamaka who played pivotal roles in both Playoff victories. However, Adon Shuler is a guy who filled the role of Rylie Mills and nearly did it to perfection. Once again, Notre Dame will have to create turnovers in one way or another. Those turnovers will have to be stemmed from edge pressure.
Penn State: Offensive line
I’m not sure if I can further stress the importance of the run game for both teams. Sure, Penn has shown to be more dominant in the Playoffs, but this is a whole different beast that the Nittany Lions are going against.
If one thing is for certain, Al Golden is going to dial up blitz, blitz, and more blitz. Notre Dame is going to bring all kinds of pressure upon Drew Allar and I doubt that Penn State will get many deep-ball opportunities. Penn State has shown that when they’re at their best they can establish the run and then open the door for Allar to air it out. Ultimately, I was leaning on picking Kaytron Allen or Nick Singleton here, but the basis of this offense comes behind the big boys up-front. Funny enough, I picked a Notre Dame defensive lineman, I think it’s pretty clear just how important the battle in trenches truly is.
Aside from the run game, Penn State will want to get guys like Tyler Warren, Omari Evans, and Harrison Wallace III the ball. All this depends on the guys up front: Nick Dawkins, Nolan Rucci, Sal Wormley, Drew Shelton, and Olaivavega Ioane.
PREDICTION ~
It’s hard to say for certain who will win the battle up-front, but that will decide the game. I like both rosters from top to bottom, the real question is which team can rise to the occasion. The stigma that James Franklin can’t win in big games will be tested Thursday, for the first time in the Playoff. Penn State had the much easier path to get here, but can they ride the momentum? I believe the true difference-maker will be Marcus Freeman. If Freeman can out-scheme Kirby Smart, he can probably out-scheme Franklin too. I expect a low-scoring affair and think the game will be decided in the second half. I like Notre Dame to win 24-17.