The Path through the 12-team College Football Playoff: Ryan Day’s redemption

For the first time in the history of college football, a team with two regular season losses that finished the year without a conference title and ranked outside the top-five in the country, had a chance to play for a national championship. Ryan Day and Ohio State got a chance to avenge their loss to Michigan in the final week of the regular season, just as Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman got the opportunity to atone for their Week 2 hiccup against Northern Illinois. 

The 12-team College Football Playoff provided a chance for teams to grow, evolve, and in the case of Ohio State a chance to maximize the most talented roster in the entire country. Apparently $20 million was enough for the Buckeyes to buy a national championship roster, and I bet if you ask Day, who assuredly saved his job on Monday night with a 34-23 win over the Fighting Irish, it was a bargain. 

The 12-team CFP gave us so much this season, not just the expanded postseason and a sneakily great title game, but a season full of significance with so many more teams in the mix. It also gave birth to this wonderful little column (if I do say so myself), so for the final time, here are the 12 most important things that happened in college football this week. Let’s go!

The Statement

There’s no bigger statement than a national title.

1. Ryan Day forgot to coach scared

In the second half of Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, Day’s freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith was only targetted twice and had little to no bearing on the outcome. Then, on Monday night in Atlanta, as the Fighting Irish were storming back from a 21-7 halftime deficit, it began to look like the same old story. 

Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fell in love with the quarterback run and after a 30-yard touchdown pass from Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard to Jaden Greathouse, Kelly’s unit faced a third-and-11 from their own 34-yard line with an eight-point lead and 2:45 remaining. Suddenly, like Kevin McCallister at the end of Home Alone, Day wasn’t afraid anymore. 

Day was all but fired by the Ohio State fanbase after the Week 14 debacle in Columbus, so what did he have to lose? Well, not a whole lot, and for the entire CFP, right down to Will Howard’s 56-yard completion to Smith to seal a national title, he coached and his players played that way. Monday night’s win was the perfect 2024-25 Ohio State experience because, in the CFP, Day’s Buckeyes were as dominant as a 21-7 first-half lead and as resilient a fourth-quarter field goal drive to put the trophy on ice. 

The Buckeyes led 193 minutes and 59 seconds of their 240 minutes in the CFP, 154 of those by two scores.

The Autopsy

In the regular season, The Death Penalty helped us eliminate former contenders from CFP consideration. The Autopsy helps us identify why this near championship season died on the vine

2. Marcus Freeman did not

Notre Dame was thoroughly outclassed from a talent perspective in this game, but as it has throughout the year, ND stands for “never dead.” The Irish climbed out of their own grave in the second half, as they did in the Orange Bowl after Penn State submitted the most commanding 10-3 first half in recent memory. Leonard’s aggressiveness gave the passing game some life, and a forced fumble by Drayk Bowen on Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka gave Freeman’s team a chance to cut it to a one-score game. 

Instead, after an 11-play 70-yard drive, Freeman – the same head coach who outsmarted Kirby Smart in the Sugar Bowl with special teams shenanigans to draw an offsides call – opted for a 27-yard field goal attempt with 9:27 left in the fourth quarter to cut the lead from 16 to 13. In other words, he wanted to make a two-score game, a two-score game… and as if a message from the football gods, Mitch Jeter doinked it off the left upright. 

The analytics had the decision as a toss-up, but a head coach who has been aggressive all season and even more so in the postseason, turtled in the biggest moment of his career. Notre Dame did eventually cut it to an eight-point game, only for Smith to seal it. Analytics be damned, if you have a shot, even on fourth-and-goal from the nine-yard line, to cut the deficit in half and no guarantee you’ll see the ball two more times, you have to take it. 

Marcus Freeman is an excellent coach and should be lauded for Notre Dame’s tremendous season, but a year after he sent 10 men onto the field for a fourth-quarter goalline stand against the Buckeyes, his late-game demons reappeared and it may take a while to work through them. 

3. If you can’t stop the run, you can’t stop the Buckeyes

Two teams have truly slowed down Ohio State’s offense this season; Michigan and Texas, and both used a similar recipe: Stop the run without stacking the box. Which, is a whole hell of a lot easier said than done. Still, players like Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant along the Michigan defensive line and Alfred Collins, Barryn Sorrell, and Colin Simmons leading the Longhorns up front, make it possible. 

If you can stop the run primarily with four down linemen and two linebackers, it allows you to play two deep safeties to prevent Smith and Egbuka from torching you deep, while also putting the Buckeyes in third-and-long. If you can win up front against an offensive line that has been without future NFL left tackle Josh Simmons and All-American center Seth McLaughlin for weeks, Kelly and Day are left with a choice, smash their head into a brick wall all day, or trust Howard to make tight-window throws. Michigan and Texas did. Notre Dame did not. 

The strength of Notre Dame’s defense is in the secondary, even with potential first-round cornerback Benjamin Morrison out for the season with a hip injury. So, defensive coordinator Al Golden plays mostly single-high and plays the second-most man coverage of any defense in the country (only behind Purdue). Even with loaded fronts, Notre Dame was never a good run-stopping unit.

Notre Dame only stuffed Ohio State (held them to zero or fewer yards) on five of their 41 carries as the Buckeyes ran for 214 yards primarily between QuinShon Judkins, Will Howard, and TreVeyon Henderson. And most of those stuffs came late in the fourth quarter with loaded boxes, which enabled Howard to hit Smith for the 56-yard clincher. 

For as good as Smith, Egbuka, and Carnell Tate are, stopping Ohio State starts with stopping the run, and Notre Dame, which was without its best defensive lineman Rylie Mills, wasn’t up to the task.

4. Puke and not enough rally

In the CFP quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl, Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo threw up on the sidelines amidst a legendary performance that was nearly enough to upset Texas. Then, three weeks later, Riley Leonard found himself in the same situation. 

Leonard carried the ball nine times on Notre Dame’s 18-play 75-yard touchdown drive to open the game, including a one-yard touchdown run. Then, exhausted, the senior quarterback promptly lost his lunch on the sidelines. Judging by every press conference he’s ever done and the bible passage written on his hand in sharpie, there’s a chance it was the first time he’s ever had to puke and rally, which isn’t easy even if your only objective is to win the next round of flip cup instead of a national championship. 

This season, Leonard ranked seventh in the country by EPA/rush and had a 54.9% success rate. Even with Jeremiyah Love reportedly back to 100%, Leonard’s legs were probably Notre Dame’s best chance to win, so OC Mike Denbrock ran his wheels off from the opening kick. Leonard finished with a 74% rushing success rate and 0.41 EPA/carry (even better than his season average), but he carried the ball just six times the rest of the way and was sacked twice. 

Leonard needed to have a Cam Newton, Tim Tebow-esque performance on the ground, but he’s just not built like those superhuman Heisman Trophy winners, so he couldn’t take the beating. The game script, as it got out of hand, also dictated more pass attempts from Leonard, who was excellent throwing the ball (0.47 EPA/Dropback), but that element didn't arrive until the second half after four straight possessions without points. 

And the CFP National Championship Game Heisman goes to…

5. Will Howard, quarterback Ohio State

When Ohio State landed Will Howard out of the transfer portal as Kyle McCord’s replacement last offseason, the move left a lot to be desired. The Buckeyes struck out on Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward and instead opted for a former three-star who was a physical gamer at Kansas State, but relatively unrefined as a passer. However, circumstances can elevate quarterbacks and that was the case with Howard for much of the season, but in CFP, Howard elevated his game. 

Against Notre Dame, Howard threw for 231 yards on 17/21 passing, ran for another 57 on 16 attempts, and accounted for 18 of his team's 21 first downs. He started the game by completing 14 of his first 15 throws and his offense went a perfect 6-6 on third down. He made legitimately high-level throws and as all great quarterbacks do, he burned the defense when they brought pressure. Against the blitz, Howard was 8/10 for 151 yards with a staggeringly quick average time to throw of 2.01 seconds. 

After a long season in Kelly’s offense, the veteran QB knew where he wanted to go with the football at all times and at times was the perfect point guard for the Ohio State Monstars. If Howard played at the level he did in the national championship game, and frankly the entire CFP, all season, we might be talking about the 2024-25 Buckeyes as one of the best teams this century. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

6. You might want to cover that guy

Yeah, Jeremiah Smith, you may want to have somebody in his vicinity. Ohio State’s first touchdown of the day was a walk-in for Smith, but his space was actually in a lot of ways a testament to the panic he induces in opposing defensive backs. 

Cornerback Christian Gray was so worried about Smtih getting the ball on the reverse, a look that Ohio State had just shown on a hand-off to the running back, that he significantly overcommitted after the snap, leaving the best wide receiver in college football wide-open and the Ohio State band playing the first few notes of the fight song. 

7. Playoff Greathouse

Sophomore wide receiver Jaden Greathouse set career highs in the Orange Bowl with seven grabs for 105 yards, and he followed that stellar one-TD performance up with six catches for 128 yards and two scores. Through the regular season and first two rounds of the CFP, the former four-star had racked up 359 receiving yards and one score. Then, in the two biggest games of the season, he amassed 65% of that yardage and 300% of those touchdowns, including this one to cut to national championship game to one score. 

The Irish desperately need an alpha wide receiver in their offense, and while it won’t be easy to replace Riley Leonard this offseason, Greathouse’s emergence certainly helps. 

8. Depth still exists in college football

Kirby Smart calls it the deterioration of college football, though after Ohio State’s convincing title run, it may be more of a personal problem for the two-time national champion. It’s the idea that with the transfer portal and NIL presenting more avenues to starting opportunities for backups at blue-blood programs that used to stack blue-chip talent, every team in the country is more susceptible to a major drop-off due to injury. The Buckeyes either proved that theory wrong or this $20 million dollar roster (again a massive bargain for a national championship) is the exception that proves the rule. 

Day’s team was able to paper over massive losses along the offensive line and stack talent all over the roster, not just with home-grown five-stars at wide receiver, but with a big-time transfer at running back. TreVeyon Henderson and former Ole Mis Rebel QuinShon Judkins both still looked Week 2 fresh, 16 games into the year. While it was a relatively even split all season, Judkins was the dominant back on Monday night, rushing 11 times for 100 yards and two touchdowns with two catches for 21 yards and another score.

Judkins, a first-team All-SEC performer under Lane Kiffin, broke loose for a 70-yarder and did this:

Most every team in the country would be happy for one running back that good. 

Big boys don’t cry

Both teams suffered costly injuries on the offensive line, but big boys don’t cry

9. Donovan Jackson the selfless superstar

Donovan Jackson, along with much of this Ohio State roster, is eligible to declare for the 2025 NFL Draft. Jackson, a first-team All-Big Ten selection at left guard in 2023, will likely be one of the first interior offensive linemen selected, but he forfeited nearly an entire season of film at guard to kick out to left tackle after Josh Simmons and Zen Michalski were lost for the year, and what he did there should impress NFL evaluators even more. 

The 6-foot-4 320-pound senior did not make a seamless transition to left tackle, but he allowed just two pressures and no sacks the entire CFP and for what it’s worth, posted an 87.8 PFF pass blocking grade on Monday night. Losing a first-round left tackle would have doomed nearly every roster in the country, but not Ohio State and Jackson’s willingness to play his final collegiate season out of position is the biggest reason why. 

10. A timely tackle debut

Part of the shared expectation that Notre Dame would struggle to put up even 20 points on Ohio State’s defense was the fact that the Irish’s starting left tackle, Anthonie Knapp, went down with an ankle injury in the Orange Bowl that would keep him out of the national title game. However, Knapp’s injury coincided with the return of Charles Jagusah, the redshirt freshman who was expected to start the season at left tackle before a torn pec sidelined him. 

While Jagusah wasn’t perfect against JT Tuimoloau and Ohio State’s loaded defensive line, he allowed just two QB pressures as Leonard was kept clean on 76.5% of his dropbacks. Unlike against Texas, that defensive line and DC Jim Knowles’s creative pressure packages didn’t decide the outcome of this one. 

Offseason outlook

Even with the offseason roster churn of college football presenting serious uncertainty, it’s never too early to look to next year’s team and how these programs can get back to the CFP

11. Notre Dame

Now that the season is finally over and with much of the chaos of the transfer portal complete, the biggest question for each of these programs is the same: Who is playing quarterback next year? Notre Dame will return both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, and it appears Steve Angeli, who led the Irish on a field goal drive just before halftime of the Orange Bowl, will be the one handing the ball to them in 2025. 

Angeli, will be in his redshirt junior season and Freeman has already begun loading up weapons for him, adding three pass-catchers out of the transfer portal; Will Pauling from Wisconsin, Malachi Fields from Virginia, and Ty Washington from Arkansas. 

On the other side of the ball, beyond just losing Morrison and two-time first-team All-American Xavier Watts from the secondary, Freeman may have to undergo a DC search. Immediately in the wake of Monday night’s loss, it was reported that the Cincinnati Bengals are interested in hiring Al Golden to replace Lou Anarumo on Zac Taylor’s staff. 

12. Ohio State

While Notre Dame has a veteran option to turn to at quarterback, Ohio State will either need to pluck one out of the portal, potentially by convincing Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers to drop his name from the 2025 NFL Draft and return to the place where he began his collegiate career, or hand the keys of Kelly’s offense to Julian Sayin. Sayin is a former five-star who transferred to Ohio State from Alabama last offseason. 

There weren’t nearly as many veteran options on the market this offseason as a year ago when the Buckeyes and Irish landed Howard and Leonard respectively. So with both Air Noland and Devin Brown departing in the transfer portal, Sayin is probably the most realistic option for a team entering the offseason as one of the 2026 national title favorites. 

Beyond quarterback, Day’s primary objective will be to stop the bleeding as the core of his championship roster finally departs for the professional ranks. However, he’ll have help in that endeavor with Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs will two young to leave for the NFL. As long as those two are on the roster, the Buckeyes will have a chance to win the Big Ten and possibly more.