The Path through the 12-team College Football Playoff semifinal: Captain Jack saves the day

Now, I’ve established that I’m not into drawing grand conclusions from small sample sizes, but when the reality of the situation backs up the theory, I’ll take the leap. The theory was that a 12-team College Football Playoff would do a better job of ensuring that the four best teams in the country make the semifinals. The reality was that the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl absolutely kicked ass. 

Notre Dame nearly walked off Penn State with a last-second field goal after a back-breaking interception from Drew Allar on Thursday night and Jack Sawyer put a poetic stamp on Ohio State’s postseason run with a game-clinching strip-sack scoop-and-score 24 hours later. Could you possibly have asked for more? 

The CFP semifinals gave us so much that even with just two games, I’ve still delivered you the 12 most important things that happened in college football this week, so let’s go!

The Statements

It’s the CFP semifinal, every win is a statement. 

1. Captain Jack saves the Buckeyes

Just six weeks ago, all Jack Sawyer could do was try to stop Michigan from planting its flag at midfield of Ohio Stadium, helpless after four straight losses to the Wolverines and denied a chance to play for the Big Ten title… again. Friday night, Sawyer controlled his team’s fate, and on fourth-and-goal from the eight-yard line with 2:29 left in the Cotton Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal, the Buckeye’s captain, Captain Jack, sealed a 28-14 win over Texas and his freshman roommate, Quinn Ewers. 

Even with two losses, including that inexplicable defeat at the hands of that team up north, Ohio State remains the best team in college football and the clear favorite in the national championship game against Notre Dame. And for all the talent on a loaded offense, the strength of the Buckeyes remains on the other side of the ball, with Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Denzel Burke, and all the veterans who put off their NFL dreams for a shot at beating Michigan and winning it all. Hey, one-for-two ain’t bad, and they’re one win away. 

Maybe it took everyone a while to realize it because Oregon got the best of them in Euguene and there just aren’t many other elite offenses in the Big Ten, but defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is coaching an elite unit, clearly the best in the country. 

The most important number in that list, not just Friday night but the entire season, is the red zone defense, which no surprise is No. 1 in the country. Even before the Sawyer strip-sack, Caleb Downs, the team’s big money transfer portal addition who has been worth every penny, blew up a pitch well in the backfield that went for a seven-yard loss. Ohio State may not be advancing to the national championship without its dominant red zone defense, and the Buckeyes may not even be in the CFP if it weren’t for a four-down goalline stand in Happy Valley back in Week 10 to prevent Penn State from tying that one up. 

Sawyer and Downs, a combination perfectly emblematic of how Ohio State executed the NIL and portal era to perfection last offseason - retaining homegrown stars while still saving enough for a few big splashes. 

2. Does ND stand for Notre Dame or “not dead” 

I imagine a hypothetical halftime meeting between Marcus Freeman and James Franklin during Notre Dame’s come-from-behind 27-24 Orange Bowl victory over Penn State would have gone something like Michael Corleone's sit-down with Sollazo at Louis’s restaurant in the Bronx. Notre Dame, like the Corleone family, was battered, bloodied, on its heels, but not dead.

“What I want is a guarantee. No more attempts on my father’s life,” Michael said, knowing that wouldn’t be a problem so long as the gun had been planted in the bathroom to kill his two dinner dates. “What guarantees can I give you Mike,” Sollazo replied. “I’m the hunted one. I missed my chance. You think too much of me kid, I’m not that clever,” a part of him knowing, as Michael did, he may not be around for much longer. 

Penn State dominated the first half, rushing for 141 yards on Notre Dame’s vaunted defense, which had allowed less than that total over its first two CFP contests against Indiana and Georgia combined. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard was erratic. His first-half interception had led to points and he was being evaluated for a concussion heading into the break. But that first Nittany Lion's first scoring drive went for a field goal, not a touchdown after Allar’s poor throw to Nicholas Singleton for a walk-in TD at the goalline was dropped. 

With Leonard on the sidelines down 10-0, backup QB Steve Angeli marched the Irish into field goal range to get his team on the board as the half expired. Dominant, but up just 10-3, Franklin knew, as an exasperated Sollazo said when he first got the news that the Don had survived the assassination attempt, “he’s still alive!” 

The Fighting Irish didn’t simply dominate from that point, a remarkable interception from Penn State defensive lineman Dani Dennis-Sutton made sure of that, but the tide turned considerably, as it did in Notre Dame’s Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, in the middle eight. That was thanks, not just to Angeli’s spark, but to the vulnerabilities it helped offensive coordinator Mike Debrock uncover in Penn State’s oversized Big Ten defense. 

Big Ten linebackers are built to play the run, and they did it well in the first half. But after the break, Denbrock picked on second-team All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King in coverage, forcing him into matchups with speedy running back Aneyas Williams out in space or with athletic tight ends Mitchell Evans and Eli Raridon. Williams torched King for a 36-yard reception on the first drive of the second half and two drives later a King pass interference penalty on Raridon in the end zone led to a Jeremiyah Love touchdown on the next play. 

When he wasn’t going after King, Denbrock followed Oregon’s gameplan from the Big Ten Championship game and exploited Penn State’s glaring weakness in the slot. Jaden Greathouse, who had never had a game with more than five catches or over 75, caught seven passes for 105 yards and a score. 

Denbrock’s offense has relied on his versatile rushing attack to break games open, but on Thursday night the Irish were held to 116 yards on the ground with only 35 and a touchdown on 18 attempts from Leonard. Six of the veteran quarterback’s carries went first-downs, but all five of the Irish’s explosive plays came in the passing game as he completed 15/23 passes for 223 yards. When a play-caller can adapt so quickly in-game it speaks volumes to not just the competence of that individual coach, but the excellence of the entire coaching staff. In terms of pure talent, Freeman’s team might be outgunned in the national championship game, but it’d be foolish to count out the best young coach in the sport. 

The Autopsy

In the regular season, The Death Penalty helped us eliminate former contenders from CFP consideration. The Autopsy helps us identify why these promising seasons died on the vine

3. Was Drew Allar’s disaster-class the symptom or the cause?

Penn State’s former five-star quarterback couldn’t have been much worse in the biggest game of his career. And while it’s fun to pile on Big Game James, he deserves credit for trusting the quarterback who got him this far to win the game in regulation. Franklin’s team played hard and smart all game. Sure he’s now 1-15 against AP Top 5 opponents after this loss, but he was hardly the reason the Nittany Lions fell short. 

Allar went 12/23 for 135 yards and one of the most costly interceptions you could possibly throw. It was the type of play that gets a nickname for shorthand reference when we’re still talking about it in a decade, especially if the Irish go on to win it all. The interception, thrown on Penn State’s own side of the 50 with under a minute left in a tie game, swung win probability 55% in Notre Dame’s direction, but it was far from the former five-star’s only mistake.

Back in the first quarter, Allar’s inaccurate toss to Singleton on the goalline was a four-point swing in a three-point loss. For the game, Allar averaged 5.33 yards per dropback over three yards worse than his season average, which ranked No. 6 in the country. He was inaccurate and out of rhythm from the very start, but if the run game had stayed rolling, it wouldn’t have mattered. In the end, it did matter, though - because, without a creditable threat on the outside, Notre Dame could load the box, play one-on-one in coverage, and not just win against Penn State’s receivers, shut them out. 

Not a single Penn State wide receiver caught a pass in the game, and only two, Omari Evans and Harrison Wallace III, were targetted a total of five times. Yes, Allar struggled. And no, there is no defense for the interception, and what could have been two more if not for penalties. He may have had the worst game of his entire career, but when you don’t have any credible playmakers on the outside against the No. 1 pass defense in the country, what’s it supposed to look like? 

4. Red Zone woes send Sark packing

Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play-callers in the country. So how, Josh, do you explain Sark’s Texas Longhorns ranking 95th in the country in red zone scoring percentage and 52nd in red zone touchdown percentage while the other four teams in the CFP semifinals were all in the top 20? Well, I’ll take a crack at it. 

First, let’s establish that the easiest way to turn red zone trips into seven points is to run the ball, as evidenced by Army and Navy ranking No. 3 and No. 1 in red zone TD%. With less space to stretch a defense vertically, the throwing windows become smaller and smaller, so if you can line up and play smashmouth football inside the 20, you’re going to have success. Texas simply can’t do that and hasn’t been able to all year. 

The Longhorns rank 42nd in rushing success rate are 70th in EPA/carry, and are stuffed (tackled for a loss or no gain) on 18.3% of their attempts, which is bottom third in the country. Sark can get his backs into space with misdirection and scheme, but when it’s time to line up and play, with both its backs listed at 200 pounds, Texas doesn’t have the bodies necessary. That’s why Sark called the pitch. He was trying to beat the Buckeyes east and west instead of just running it up the middle because his best chance was to win with speed. Well, you know who else has speed?

Second, the tight windows. When Quinn Ewers was the highest-rated high school quarterback in recruiting history, most of that hype had to do with his arm talent, but injuries have zapped him of that critical horsepower. Every throw is a floater, and he has great touch, but you need zip in the red zone, and Quinn just doesn’t have it. 

Texas can thrive when Sark has space to spread a defense horizontally with misdirection and vertically with speed. When one of those dimensions is gone, talent becomes more important than scheme, on both sides of the ball, and Ohio State had more. 

And the CFP semifinal Heisman goes to…

5. Ohio State defensive end, Jack Sawyer

Captain Jack didn’t just close out the Cotton Bowl with a strip-sack that he returned 83 yards for a touchdown, he was the most dominant player on the field all game. Sawyer also added a TFL, two batted passes, five quarterback pressures, and three QB hits. The former five-star turned senior leader has been on a mission in the postseason with five sacks and 16 pressures through three games in the CFP. Oh, and on Friday night, he did his damage against potential first-round NFL draft pick Cameron Williams. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns (and an even bigger fourth-down conversion)

6. Jeremiyah Love’s breaking tackles

Jeremiyah Love entered the Orange Bowl with significant concerns about his availability and effectiveness after being limited in the first rounds by a knee injury and an illness. He also entered the Orange Bowl at No. 2 in the country in yards per carry and No. 3 in yards after contact per carry, a rare blend of breakaway speed and punishing physicality. His 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana showcased the former, and the latter was on display against Penn State. 

Oh, and a dash of Alvin Kamara-level contact balance to really bring this masterpiece of a run together. Against a top-10 run defense that a week ago held Ashton Jeanty to 105 yards on 31 carries, Love, clearly still nagged by the injury, racked up 32 of his 45 yards in the Orange Bowl after contact. 

7. A legendary Penn State backfield

It takes a lot to be a legendary backfield duo at Penn State, a school that’s seen Lydell Mitchell and Franco Harris split carries in the early 70s and has produced all-time great running backs from John Cappelletti to Saquon Barkley. However, in 2024, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen accomplished something no duo in program history ever had by both eclipsing 1,000 yards in the same year. Yes, a 16-game season helps, but it’s a remarkable record nonetheless. 

On Thursday, the junior duo, affectionately known as the “Lawn Boyz”, both ended their seasons and potentially their Penn State careers with over 80 yards on the ground against the Irish, and Singleton added three scores. There are rumors that the junior duo could head back to Happy Valley next season, but if not, they went out in memorable fashion, at 10th and 11th on the Penn State all-time rushing yards list. 

8. That’s why they got Will

In Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes targeted Jeremiah Smith seven times, only twice in the second half, and the superstar freshman finished with just five catches for 35 yards and a score. In the first two rounds of the CFP, and especially the Rose Bowl demolition of the Ducks, priority No. 1 for offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was to get the ball to No. 4. That philosophy turned Will Howard, largely brought to Columbus for his athleticism and physicality in the run game, into a distributor, a real point guard, best when the ball is coming out quickly. 

In the Cotton Bowl, Texas took that away and Smith caught just 1 pass for 3 yards. Howard threw for 289 yards, but on the biggest offensive play of the game, Kelly called his number, and the athletic, physical runner, came through. 

He’s not the best passer in the country, and if Ohio State had landed Cam Ward last offseason, we could be talking about an undefeated death machine and one of the most talented teams of all time. Instead, they got Will Howard, and they got him for exactly this reason: To call QB power on fourth-and-2 with the season on the line, and by god, it worked. 

And no, this play isn’t a touchdown, but the band might’ve gotten the first note or two out before Howard realized his feet weren’t keeping up with the rest of his 6-foot-4 frame. 

9. Shark Wheel, the Coach Dugs special

You know, I could tell you about how cool it was to see Texas take advantage of Ohio State’s aggressiveness with two wheel route touchdown passes to Jaydon Blue out of the backfield. But let’s be honest, if you, like me, watched hours of Big Cat’s NCAA Football 14 streams during the pandemic, you instantly yelled “shark wheel” in your living room and had a flashback to lockdown. That must be what it feels like for the people still watching the new seasons of Love is Blind. Is it bad it felt nostalgic?

If you have no idea what I’m talking about and feel left out, just be glad you finished paying off your student loans years ago. 

Offseason outlook

Even with the offseason roster churn of college football presenting serious uncertainty, it’s never too early to look to next year’s team and how these programs can get back to the CFP

10. Penn State

James Franklin didn’t beat Notre Dame in the CFP semifinal, and much of the fanbase won’t count wins over SMU and Boise State as “big ones” but that’s no reason for Franklin’s seat to heat up. He may not pull many upsets, but he wins nearly all the games he’s supposed to and in the world of the 12-team CFP, that’s enough to be in the mix every year. The task for Franklin will be to provide Allar, now faced with virtually no choice but to come back to Happy Valley instead of leaving for the NFL after a disastrous outing in the Orange Bowl, with enough weapons to get back.

Penn State isn’t just thin at wide receiver, the Nittany Lions are losing Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren, the first tight end to finish in the top 10 in Heisman Trophy voting since Notre Dame’s Ken McAfee in 1977. Franklin has already started delivering weapons with wide receivers Kyron Hudson and Devonte Ross in the transfer portal, and five-star freshman Luke Reynolds excepts to do a decent Warren impression in his sophomore year. Still, unless Allar takes a big step forward, the Nittany Lions offense may take a step back. 

The curiosity of this offseason will be how many members of Penn State’s loaded 2022 recruiting class head for the NFL. Abdul Carter is gone, and Drew Allar is likely back, but what is the future for Singleton and Allen in the backfield and Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton along the defensive line? Those decisions will be massive because Franklin hasn’t landed a top-10 high school class since bringing in his great group of current juniors. 

11. Texas

It’s Arch Manning time. Really, what else is there to say? Ewers will either hit the portal or leave for the NFL, and we’ll get a full season of Manning Mania. 

There are positions to address on offense, especially with both offensive tackles heading to the pros, but the depth on the defensive line and the young stars in Austin alone are enough to believe that the Longhorns will be back in the CFP next season. In a season loaded with true freshman wide receivers taking college football by storm, five-star Ryan Wingo was overshadowed. He’s an electric deep threat and will replace Matthew Golden as WR1 in 2025, but the true freshman on defense is the one to really get excited about. 

Texas may have had the best defensive line in the country this season and certainly had one of the two deepest (Tennessee being the other in contention). Yet, by the time the postseason came around true freshman Colin Simmons was visibly the best member of it. His physical ability as an edge rusher jumps off the screen and he posted 18 QB pressures across the final four games of the Longhorn’s season. 

A bit of history, and it’s long overdue

12. Marcus Freeman breaks a barrier

With Notre Dame’s win, 39-year-old Marcus Freeman became the first Black and first Asian American head coach to lead his team to the national championship game. While it’s clear he recognizes the magnitude of that accomplishment and what it means to break that barrier, he’s allergic to individual praise and self-promotion. 

Against all odds, Freeman has somehow made Notre Dame so easy to root for, and it takes a special individual to pull that off.