The college football season is fast approaching with Week 0 right around the corner. Some teams enter 2025 with legitimate playoff aspirations, while others are more focused on just improving from last season.
Sportsbooks can give us an early look into how both oddsmakers and the public view each program with their projected win totals. While college football is one of the most unpredictable sports, breaking down a team, analyzing their schedule, and projecting how their season could unfold is always fun. Everyone loves an underdog, and it always feels good to sniff out a team early in the year that goes out and proves people wrong by winning more than expected.
Here are four college football teams with win totals that are too low for the 2025 season.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Baylor Bears (7.5)
Baylor ended last season on a six-game winning streak before falling in their bowl game, but look for them to carry that late-season momentum into 2025. The Bears face a challenging non-conference schedule opening with Auburn and SMU, but those are both winnable games, and even a split would put them in a good spot. On top of that, their three toughest conference games (Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah) will be played at home.
Beyond the schedule, the Bears return 13 starters, including eight from an offense that looked like a vintage high-powered Big 12 unit late last season. Offensive coordinator Jake Spavital is back along with QB Sawyer Robertson, who looked as good as anyone in the country at the position during the second half of last season. Anything can happen when it comes to the Big 12, but Baylor is a team to look out for, especially in terms of their projected 7.5 wins.
LSU Tigers (8.5)
Brian Kelly has surpassed this win total in two of his three seasons at LSU, with the lone miss coming last year when the Tigers finished with eight wins. Now Kelly has what he has proclaimed as the best team he has put together in Baton Rouge.
That includes a top QB in all of college football in Garrett Nussmeier who now has a season of experience under his belt and is expected to compete for the Heisman trophy. Defense has been the issue for the Tigers in recent years, but major improvement is expected in the second year under coordinator Blake Baker, especially with two preseason All-SEC selections at linebacker in Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr.
Yes they do play in the big bad SEC, but the conference feels more wide open this year and the Tigers are right at the top of the league when looking at talent. While their schedule does include several tough matchups, there are no games that would currently categorize as likely losses. In addition, their most difficult games are spaced out, meaning they avoid the brutal SEC gauntlet that has derailed many teams' seasons in the past.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7.5)
The Yellow Jackets have finished with six and seven wins in Brent Key’s first two seasons, but it feels like he is building something in Atlanta. Georgia Tech boasts one of the best QB-RB duos in the ACC with Haynes King and Jamal Haynes. The defense has a lot of question marks after an average 2024 campaign, but I believe the talent on the offensive side of the ball is enough to make up for that.
They also have a softer ACC schedule avoiding matchups against Miami, Louisville, SMU, and Florida State. This feels like a year Brent Key’s team could take a big step forward, and with Georgia Tech likely to be favored in all but two games, 7.5 feels a little low.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.5)
Well, here we are again buying into the Nebraska preseason hype. But with this team and their schedule, the win total is too low in my mind. History might suggest otherwise, as the Cornhuskers have gone under their win total every season since 2017, but I have faith in Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola. One trend has to give as Rhule has either matched or improved his team’s win total in every season as a college head coach, and Nebraska is coming off of seven wins in 2024.
Raiola showed he has the talent last year, and is poised to take a big step forward as a sophomore. They also brought in several high level players via the portal who should have an immediate impact. Most notably though the schedule flags this as a low win total. With eight games that I currently see as likely wins, plus a few toss-ups that they could come out of on the winning end, I like Nebraska to exceed expectations.