Brent Venables knew what he was walking into when he took the reins at Oklahoma. Replacing a head coach like Lincoln Riley and leading a blueblood into the gauntlet that is the SEC? That’s not exactly a low-pressure situation. Now, entering the 2025 season, things are getting uncomfortable in Norman. And for Venables, this year might be do-or-die.
To be fair, Venables had a bit of a redemption arc in 2023, bouncing back from a rocky 6-7 debut season to a solid 10-3 mark. It was enough to convince many that Oklahoma could carry momentum into their first SEC campaign. But the Sooners stumbled hard in 2024, finishing with another 6-7 record and a brutal 2-6 showing in conference play. That kind of result won’t cut it when your boosters are SEC-hungry and your paycheck is $8.6 million a year with a nearly $45 million buyout attached.
This isn’t just about winning games—it’s about showing progress. And right now, the path forward is murky.
Oklahoma fans are split because the truth is, there are two very realistic paths this season could take.
On one hand, if new OC Ben Arbuckle and transfer QB John Mateer click instantly, Oklahoma could be in the thick of the 12-team College Football Playoff conversation. Mateer has legit dual-threat ability, and Arbuckle’s offense at Washington State was explosive. Throw in a healthier wide receiver room with returning names like Deion Burks and the addition of transfers like Keontez Lewis and Isaiah Sategna, and it’s not hard to imagine this team lighting it up.
But then you look at the schedule.
Oklahoma will host Michigan, Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. That’s already a murderer's row. Then toss in road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama—plus, of course, the annual Red River Showdown with Texas. That’s eight games that they could potentially lose. And if this team isn’t firing on all cylinders early? It could spiral in a hurry.
That’s what makes this season such a tightrope walk for Venables. Even if the team is improved, the final record might not reflect that. It’s one thing to be better—it’s another thing entirely to show it with wins against the SEC’s elite.
The bottom line? Oklahoma could win 10 games and make noise in the postseason. Or they could be clawing to get bowl-eligible again. If it’s the latter, it might not matter how big the buyout is—Venables could be packing his bags.