After seven of the eight College Football Playoff games ended in double-digit winning margins, we are projected to get an extremely tight matchup between Penn State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.
Both the Nittany Lions and the Fighting Irish bring stout defenses and strong running games into this matchup that is essentially a pick ‘em.
We’ve seen no movement on the line since it opened at -1.5 for Notre Dame, although the total has been bet down from an opening line of 47. As usual, most of the public is coming in on the favorite Fighting Irish and over 70% of public bets are banking on the total going over.
It’s tough to know exactly what we’ll get out of either team in this matchup. Despite having two College Football Playoff games under their belts, neither team has answered any of the lingering questions that surround them. It’s crazy to think that two teams only one game away from the National Championship could have so much uncertainty surrounding them from a betting perspective, but it’s true.
Penn State entered the postseason with an anchor weighing on head coach James Franklin. Could he ever win a big game during his tenure? He claims that wins over SMU and Boise State count but others (including myself) are less than convinced. This game gives him an excellent opportunity to prove to the world he can get over the hump, but it’s still hard not to think that Notre Dame might have the coaching edge with Marcus Freeman.
Add in other question marks like its slow starts (more on that later…hint, hint), the fact that quarterback Drew Allar has been good, not great this postseason, and the health status of star Abdul Carter. All of this combines to make Penn State far from a sure thing.
Notre Dame on the other hand still has questions about quarterback Riley Leonard and whether his arm talent is good enough to beat a Penn State defense that should have the ability to take away the Notre Dame rushing attack. There are also questions about the health of running back Jeremiyah Love, who was injured against Georgia.
With so many question marks surrounding the two teams and so much attention focusing on who will win the game, here are three under-the-radar prop bets for the game.
1. Notre Dame 1st Quarter Spread (-1.5)
As I alluded to in the open, Penn State starts games slow. This hasn’t just been occurring lately, but has been a problem for Penn State all season long. Penn State has held the lead at the end of the 1st quarter in only six of 15 games this season.
Yes, it’s true that they held the lead against SMU and Boise State, but the SMU game was completely misleading. SMU had a seven-play opening drive that ended on the Penn State 19-yard line when SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings missed a wide open receiver who should’ve waltzed in for a touchdown. Jennings also had the opportunity to scramble for a first down, but elected to pass instead, gifting the Nittany Lions a turnover on downs. After Penn State’s second punt of the quarter, the clearly rattled Jennings threw an interception that gave Penn State a 7-0 lead.
Here’s a list of games that Penn State failed to hold the lead after one quarter:
- Week 1 - West Virginia (0-0 after one quarter)
- Week 2 - Bowling Green (10-7 BGSU)
- Week 5 - Illinois (7-7 after one quarter)
- Week 6 - UCLA (0-0)
- Week 7 - USC (7-3 USC)
- Week 9 - Wisconsin (3-0 Wisconsin)
- Week 13 - Minnesota (7-0 Minnesota)
- Week 14 - Maryland (7-3 Maryland)
- Big Ten Championship - (14-10 Oregon)
Even head coach James Franklin admitted early in the season that this was a problem for the Nittany Lions, remarking "It's good to be able to win and say, Guys, we're a second-half team. But I'd prefer not to say that anymore.” after the win over USC.
Notre Dame on the other hand, has only trailed in two first quarters all season - the anomaly of the Northern Illinois loss and against Georgia Tech. Notre Dame held first quarter leads over several Power 5 teams this season, including Indiana, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Purdue. Notre Dame’s stingy defense is usually able to stifle teams in the first quarter and the offense isn’t prone to slow starts.
2. Orange Bowl 1st Half UNDER 23.5 (-132)
My prediction for this game is a hard-hitting defensive battle between two top-10 defenses. The total should go under what is likely a high number of 45.5. This is a game that could mirror what we saw in Georgia-Notre Dame, which finished well under the total with a final score of 23-10. Additionally, like two boxers feeling each other out, the Bulldogs and Fighting Irish scored 16 points in the first half, with 10 of them coming in the final 39 seconds of the half due to a Georgia turnover. I think this game could be very similar.
The first quarter is likely to be under the total of 9.5 and then we should see some increased scoring in the second quarter.
Penn State is an under team, going under in 60% (6-15) of its games this season. Additionally, when faced with a stout defense that averages less than 25 points per game, it went under in six of nine games. Additionally, Notre Dame has gone under this number in both of its playoff match-ups against Indiana and Georgia. Add in the injury to Jeremiyah Love and you should see an under in the 1st Half between Penn State and Notre Dame.
3. Jeremiyah Love Over 35.5 Rush Yards and Any Time Touchdown
There are many question marks regarding Jermiyah Love's health, as the sophomore tail back has been seen at practice awkwardly wearing a brace as a result of his injury suffered in Notre Dame’s second playoff game. All indications however, are that Love is playing in this football game and my guess is that if he’s going, he’s not going to be held back.
Love is a big-play talent who averaged 7.3 yards per carry this season. Additionally, he had scored a touchdown in every single game this season before his injury against Georgia. He needed only eight carries to eclipse 100 yards and a touchdown against Indiana and had similar performances against a solid defense at Texas A&M. Even in games he was bottled up (i.e. Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville) he still found the end zone.