Way-Too-Early College Football Playoff Picks: Who’s In and Who’s Just Outside

The College Football Playoff is exactly seven months away.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Don Juan Moore/GettyImages

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff is right at seven months away from its start, so it seems like the perfect time to begin thinking about which teams will make the field.

From the end of August through early December, we'll see hundreds of college football games played all playing a small piece in determining the 12-team playoff field. Keep in mind that, unless we see a last-minute change, the format for this year's playoff will be the same as last season.

That means that the five highest-ranked conference champions will automatically get into the field. The four highest-ranked conference champions will then get a bye through the first-round. The remaining seven spots will be given to the seven highest-ranked teams from the College Football Playoff committee's rankings. They'll be seeded accordingly and the first-round will take place on college campuses, with the higher-ranked seed getting to host.

As we look ahead to this season, here's how things might shake out.

Post-Spring Projections for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff field

First-Round Byes

1) Penn State Nittany Lions
2) Texas Longhorns
3) Clemson Tigers
4) BYU Cougars

We've got Penn State winning the Big Ten and earning that No. 1 overall seed. Can James Franklin handle the pressure? That remains to be seen, but Penn State certainly has the talent to do it. We've got Texas — now led by Arch Manning — with the two-seed as an SEC Champion, and Clemson as the 3-seed as the ACC Champion.

While many are trending toward picking Texas Tech to win the Big 12 championship — and the Red Raiders will certainly be in the hunt alongside Arizona State and a few others — we're picking BYU based on experience, returning depth, and the fact that we think the Big 12 will likely cannibalize itself and the Cougars are the most battle-tested.

First-Round Matchups

5) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 12) Boise State Broncos
6) LSU Tigers vs. 11) Alabama Crimson Tide
7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 10) Miami Hurricanes
8) Georgia Bulldogs vs. 9) Oregon Ducks

Ohio State, LSU, and Miami get in as the second team from their conference. We've got Notre Dame as the seven-seed and then Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon joining them as at-larges that didn't make a conference championship game. Finally, Boise State rounds out the field as the Group of 5 bid.

Predicting how this field would play out

If this were the field, how would it play out?

I've got chalk through the first-round, which would set up these matchups in the quarterfinals:

Quarterfinals Predictions

1) Penn State vs. 8) Georgia
2) Texas vs. 7) Notre Dame
3) Clemson vs. 6) LSU
4) BYU vs. 8) Georgia

We've got Penn State, Texas, and Clemson advancing to the semifinals as the higher seed with Georgia knocking out BYU for that fourth spot.

Semifinal Predictions

1) Penn State vs. 8) Georgia
2) Texas vs. 3) Clemson

Penn State eeks out a win over Georgia, while Clemson gets its revenge over Texas. Both of these would be games fans would be lining up to see.

Way-too-Early National Championship Prediction

1) Penn State vs. 3) Clemson

If this is the matchup at the end, it will be interesting to see how things play out. It would be fun to see Tom Allen coach against his former team, and the matchup between Cade Klubnik and Drew Allar would also be one to watch. That being said, Penn State made it to the semifinals last season and they were knocking on the door of playing for a national championship. That team is going to be more effective offensively than last season.

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