Unexpectedly poor 2024 campaigns, unexpectedly good 2024 campaigns, crucial changes at head coach, crucial changes at quarterback, you name it; we’ve seen a little bit of all of it from the Tobacco Road schools as of late.
If you’re not familiar with Tobacco Road, it’s the intersecting rivalries of North Carolina’s four biggest athletic universities: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest.
Now I know, none of those names are particularly renowned for dominating the college football landscape. However, they’ve been giving us some thrilling storylines (and showdowns) recently, so if you haven’t followed them so far, 2025 would be a good time to start, as things have been set up for it to be just like the Wild West.
At this point, you may be anticipating me giving deep breakdowns of all four teams before coming to some loaded conclusion about how it'll all boil up to a nightmarish mess, but that's actually not the case. Instead, I bring all of this up to do the exact opposite, as I see all of this chaos ultimately crumbling in favor of what would perhaps be the least-surprising victor: The Duke Blue Devils.
Yes, I’m aware of how that comes off—the team that did much better than the other schools last year will continue to do so? That’s the most vanilla take ever! The only problem is we’re not talking solely about them doing good last season (though that is important); we also have the ideal nature of both their structure and schedule.
The NC coaching scene—while hectic—is not necessarily competitive
The backbone of a team’s structure is the solidity of its identity, and the two biggest factors that play into that are the well-rootedness of its QB and head coach. With that in mind, UNC and Wake Forest entering the fall with new faces in both spots isn’t much of a turn-on.
And while we’re on the subject, I’ll throw this in there too: Bill Belichick will not deliver on his hype. Old coach, past his prime, riding on a questionable legacy thanks to Tom Brady, in unfamiliar territory, distracted by romance and the press—just too many red flags.
Duke, on the other hand, went into 2024 with new guys and won nine games. The layer of assurance that comes with that goes a long way for me, as there’s no question mark floating around its ability to start over.
That, along with head coach Manny Diaz being all the better grounded, of course, leaves me comfortable with giving the Blue Devils the nod, even with them also running on a new QB in 2025.
That brings us to the second half of the puzzle, which not only addresses the one team we’re yet to cover, but also puts the final nail in the coffin of the one that refuses to die.
The placement of Duke’s rivalry games is particularly forgiving
Of Duke’s three rivalry matchups, two are at home and one is scheduled far away from the others. For context, NCSU visits Durham in September before UNC and Wake take up the last two weeks, with the latter being the worst—right now, at least—and having to face the Blue Devils during their senior day. That’s enough for me to rule out any possible path the Demon Deacons have to greatness, even as their schedule had the rivalries placed visibly better.
But anyway, the biggest obstacle that makes for Duke is what, UNC in Kenan Memorial right before a momentous finish to the season? That could definitely make for a stunning loss, but it nonetheless leaves 2-1 as the worst record the Blue Devils could realistically have (again, that being said with how we know the programs to sit currently). The same cannot be said for the North Carolina State Wolfpack.
This may be my first time getting to them today, but it's all I'll need, as I have it on good authority they do not have the same one-loss floor as the Blue Devils. This is because the Pack have to endure Wake Forest and them in back-to-back road affairs...and those teams won in Raleigh last year. In other words, both games appear “losable” and scare me to death.
That just leaves the Tar Heels, some of which are perhaps still limping around, barely breathing after my Belichick roast. But if this won't put them down, nothing will: UNC has what is easily the toughest arrangement of Tobacco Road games imaginable, with all three foes making up its last three weeks—at Wake, Duke, at NC State.
And don’t you dare let the Demon Deacons and Pack’s latest struggles fool you, as the Deacs are yet to give the Heels anything more than a one-possession win since 2015, and the Pack have beaten them for four years straight. Those little factoids tell me that there’s no way anything below 2-1 is off the table in Chapel Hill.
So, let’s run back through everything we’ve learned: Wake and UNC have completely new identities this year, and we didn’t even mention NC State’s seasoned identity, as its 2024 squad proved it remains no less susceptible to failure.
As for schedule comparisons, the Blue Devils have the best rivalry placement outside of the Deacs, but with them having the worst 2024 showing and going into Durham, the odds of their loss streak in the series living on feel far too strong. In short, not a bad set of conditions for a “basketball school.”