FCS Roundtable: Championship Favorites & Surprise Contenders

Eastern Washington’s defeat of Delaware in January’s NCAA Championship snapped a decade-long dry spell for the Big Sky, and ended a nine-year run of titles between current Colonial Athletic and Southern Conference members. Prior to the Eagles’ victory, Western Kentucky was the last program not presently in one of those two leagues. Both the SoCon and CAA boast teams that, on paper, appear primed to hoist the hardware in Frisco come winter. Big Sky members won’t part with the crown easily, though. EWU is reloaded for another deep run, while its co-conference champion Montana State boasts a talented roster capable of greatness.

The FCS Roundtable returned with an examination of the teams with road maps to Texas.

Russell Varner, Southern Pigskin.com SoCon Reporter

It’s real hard to pick against Appalachian State. It’s been well noted about the Mountaineers’ recent dominance over the Southern Conference. They return many of the stars from last year’s team, including quarterback DeAndre Presley, who has to be considered one of the front runners for the Payton award. The only thing that could hold the Mountaineers back is the uncertainty on defense. App is switching to a 3-4 defense this season and it’s hard to guess how the switch will pay off for the team. The Mountaineers’ game at home against Georgia Southern could very well determine the conference champion and SoCon favorite for the national championship game.

But, one team receiving very little media attention (which they are perfectly used to) is the Wofford Terriers. They seem to be forgotten, behind App and Georgia Southern, but return all the key players from last year’s playoff squad, including quarterback Mitch Allen, fullback and Preseason SoCon Offensive Player of the Year Eric Breitenstein and defensive end and Preseason SoCon Co-Defensive Player of the Year Ameet Pall. Did I mention that they are also hosting both Appalachian State and Georgia Southern? Everything seems to be aligned for a dark horse run by the Terriers.

Joe Suhoski, blogging Old Dominion at vbr-productions.blogspot.com

It’s always easy to pick apart teams during the preseason and project what will happen based on prior year results. Although the past is not a perfect indicator of the future, using last season’s results is more helpful than conjecture based on our unknown commodities. With that in mind, I would have to say that Georgia Southern is my pick to win the FCS national title. After beginning last season 4-4, GSU ended the season 10-5 with the last loss at Delaware in the FCS semifinal round. Since it began playing football in then-D1AA, the Eagles have won six national titles on the strength of its triple option; in 2010, GSU Head Coach Jeff Monken brought back that style of offense after the program had drifted away from it.

You could see things started clicking towards the end of the season, as GSU was playing its best football by the time the playoffs hit. All eleven starters on offense return in 2011, and nine defensive starters return as well. You don’t expect a team to make the FCS semifinals one year, return 20 of 22 starters the following year, and then take a step backwards. Of the four FCS semifinalists last year, GSU returns the most proven talent. With experience from last season under its belt, and with a defense led by Manbearpig Brent Russell, I’d predict GSU will improve upon its performance at the end of last year’s playoff run and win the title.

Another contender I see with the best chance of winning the national title is The College of William and Mary. The Co-CAA Conference champs in 2010, the Tribe were bounced from the playoffs last year by GSU. Despite winning eight games and taking a lead over UNC into the fourth quarter last year, I don’t think the team reached nearly what its potential could have been. Three different players got significant time at quarterback last year; if Michael Paulus (who transferred to W&M before last season) can stay healthy, the team should be able to put up points on the board on more consistently. Both the offense and defense return seven players each, and I expect senior RB Jonathan Grimes to explode as the best player in the FCS. If he stays healthy, the Tribe’s career leader in all-purpose yards could guide the team all the way to its first FCS national title.

One team flying under the radar with legitimate national title hopes is James Madison University. The Dukes are a team that did not come close to reaching its ceiling in 2010. It had the talent and ability to defeat the ACC’s Virginia Tech 21-16 on the road, but went 5-5 the rest of the way. So how could an FCS team good enough to beat the Hokies on the road end up .500 in the rest of its schedule? The answer is simple – a lack of timely offensive production. Of JMU’s five losses, two were by three points while another two were by seven. Ten starters return to a defense that allowed less than 15 points per game and held Va Tech to 16. James Madison outscored the opposition 176-102 in the first three quarters last season; opponents outscored JMU 60-19 in the fourth quarter and OT, after the defense had worn down. It seems that had the offense been able to stay on the field more and give the defense some rest, at least two games could have swung the Dukes’ way. (For a prime example, watch the film of their home loss to UMass.) Until we know the starting QB, it’s hard to predict how the offense will fare; but I guarantee you that if they can average six-to-seven more points per game, we’ll see JMU back in the playoffs this season.

Kyle Roth, bisonillustrated.com and ndsubisonsports.areavoices.com North Dakota State reporter

For national title favorites, at least early on, look no further than defending champion Eastern Washington. The Eagles have placed two each on the Payton and Buchanan watch lists, including QB Bo Levi Mitchell and WR Brandon Kaufman. In last season’s playoffs, watching Taiwan Jones go down had be thinking the game was a lock, but the rest of the team came up big to earn the win and plenty of that team is back with a hearty amount of postseason experience and a hope to create some football tradition in Cheney.

William & Mary should rebound from what was a fairly disappointing year, following a 6-1 start with a 2-2 regular season finish and a first-round loss to Georgia State to end the season. The Tribe boasted one of the nation’s top defenses that returns plenty of talent this year, and senior RB Jonathan Grimes should end his career as one of the premier running backs, if not outright offensive players, in the Championship Subidivision.

Finally, Northern Iowa returns a team that is flat-out stacked. The Panthers have underperformed after their dominant run in 2008, missing the playoffs entirely in 2009 and taking a first-round loss from Lehigh in 2010. QB Tirrell Rennie is a runner whose arm never quite showed itself, but coupled with RB Carlos Anderson makes for a potent Panther offense that will be battle-tested when the playoffs roll around.

For a deep sleeper, Indiana State is a trendy pick in the Valley. Transfer QB Ronnie Fouch sat behind Jake Locker at Washington and showed no meager amount of talent as he gashed MVFC defenses all last season, leading the Sycamores to their first winning season in over a decade. Their defense has a ton of question marks, but with the offensive talent Head Coach Trent Miles has been able to produce in his three seasons thus far, the Sycamores could emerge from the gauntlet of the MVFC to be a very dangerous team in the playoffs. Big sleeper, but a lot of potential in Terre Haute.

Ben Moore, Editor PantherTalk.com

I really like Georgia Southern’s chances at a FCS Title. I believe they should finish first or second in the SoCon (behind App State) but are positioned very well to take the title. My one main concern will be how much they get beaten up in Tuscaloosa playing the Crimson Tide for their last regular season game.

My wild card team is Jacksonville State. They had a tremendous off season and added some very good pieces. I’ve heard good things about Marques Ivory improving his conditioning. They were so high in 2010 after the win over Ole Miss and were truly sleepwalking at the end of the last season and were bounced in the first round. I expect a much more focused team in 2011.