FCS Roundtable: Top Games, FCS Over FBS Alerts
By Kyle Kensing
For those who missed last FCS regular season, among the highlights were Appalachian State’s Week 1 rally over Chattanooga, Montana State and Sacramento State combining for triple digits under triple digit temperatures, and a wild, final week push to the Playoffs. In addition, the 10 wins FCS programs secured over their FBS counterparts tied a single season high. The championship race shaping contests and upset specials are on tap in this week’s FCS Roundtable, in which we welcome two new contributing sites: the Jacksonville State blog Gamecock Illustrated, and Lehigh Football Nation.
Chuck Burton, Editor Lehigh Football Nation
10/29, Lehigh at Colgate. For the Patriot League, the key conference-race shaper has to be this game as none of the other Patriot League teams seem to be close to knocking off either one. Last year, Colgate RB Nate Eachus was largely grounded in a 44-14 drubbing in Lehigh’s most complete game of the regular season, and the Raiders will be eager to avenge the loss that kept them from getting a shot at the Patriot League championship.
* 9/17, Eastern Washington at Montana. Last year, it took a patented red-turf crazy overtime game for the Eagles to knock off the hated Grizzlies. But at Missoula, the Griz are 5-1 against Eastern Washington in their last six tries, and it will be an important “show me” game for their squad. It actually could be a “show me” game for Eastern Washington, too, as Bo Levi Mitchell will be tested early on in a big way to see if the Eagles have the stuff to repeat.
* 10/22, Albany at Central Connecticut State. The two heavy favorites for the NEC title will clash at tiny Arute Field in a game that will almost certainly one that dictates the championship race. The last three games between these NEC powerhouses were determined by a field goal or less.
Possible FCS over FBS wins:
* 8/31, New Hampshire over Toledo. After this game, the casual fan will wonder which team is the one from the “higher division”. The scary, experienced Wildcats will probably win this by more than two scores.
* 9/8, Central Arkansas over Louisiana Tech. A team full of over overconfident JuCo transfers on La Tech are ripe for the picking by the Bears, with UCA QB Nathan Dick the perfect candidate to do the picking.
* 9/24, North Dakota State over Minnesota. The dysfunctional Gopher program can’t seem to beat the Bison in recent years – in 2006, they squeaked by 10-9, and lost 27-21 in 2007. The funny part is they should lose to a 2011 Bison team that’s even better than those teams.
*Editor’s note: Minnesota dropped a home contest last season to NDSU’s future Missouri Valley partner, South Dakota.
More editor’s note: Coincidentally, NDSU also opened its 2010 with a defeat of a BCS conference foe, giving Turner Gill an un-warm reception at Kansas.
byJoe Suhoski, blogging Old Dominion at vbr-productions.blogspot.com
There are two games in the Colonial Athletic Association that will set the course of the season for the top teams. The first game is on October 8 when William and Mary takes on the Fightin’ Blue Hens at Delaware in a battle of the 2010 co-conference champions. For the Tribe this is by far their most difficult road conference game, while Delaware’s schedule worked out so they avoid the CAA’s other top teams (see below). If William and Mary can escape with a win, it will give them plenty of momentum for the rest of the season.
Another game that will shape the CAA landscape takes place on November 5. The Dukes of James Madison travel to New Hampshire to take on the Wildcats. Neither JMU nor UNH play Delaware this season, so it’s an important battle between the teams ranked second and fourth in the CAA preseason polls, respectively. Again, a road win in the tough CAA could play an important role in the standings at season’s end for the Dukes.
In the last two years, CAA teams have amassed victories over four FBS teams, three of which play in the ACC. It would not be a surprise to see Delaware and their defense overpower Navy on September 3. Even before Butch Davis was forced out of UNC and the continued upheaval in their program, James Madison had a good chance of getting its second consecutive win over an ACC team this season when it opens at North Carolina.
However, the CAA team with the best chance to defeat an FBS opponent this season is William and Mary. When they open at Virginia on September 3, they’ll be returning to the field where they beat the Wahoos 26-14 in 2009 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Former Richmond head coach Mike London seems to have the Cavaliers turned in the right direction in less than two years at UVa, but this Tribe team will prove to be too tough. The talent London has recruited is still too inexperienced to compensate for playing the Grimes-led team that almost defeated the Tar Heels at UNC last year.
Kyle Roth, reporter at http://bisonillustrated.com/ and http://ndsubisonsports.areavoices.com/
My early-on pick for a national title, Williams & Mary, faces a two-week gauntlet of road games the 1st and 8th of October at Villanova and Delaware, respectively. While ‘Nova can anticipate a down year from their typical title contention, the Wildcats are nonethless a formidable team and pose a challenge to any entering Villanova Stadium in Philadelphia. Delaware is another animal, though; the Hens have a legitimate aspiration to a CAA crown, and the matchup between two teams vying not only for the Colonial title but also playoff seeding should be one that has plenty of impact on the rest of the FCS world. A loss by either team could reflect the difference in home or away playoff game, which could wildly swing the eventual national title winner.
In the MVFC, the teams picked to finish first and second by the MVFC coaches (whose preseason poll came out Monday) meet in Fargo on October 29th as the Northern Iowa Panthers meet the North Dakota State Bison in what is quickly becoming a heated rivalry in the upper Midwest. The Panthers lay claim to three straight wins against the Herd since NDSU’s postseason eligibility in 2008, and boast a 25-18 all-time record against the Bison. This game in particular carries an additional stigma for NDSU, as a scrum during the 2009 meeting with UNI left leading rusher Pat Paschall ineligible for a huge game the following week against South Dakota State, which ended in a loss. There is no lost love between these two teams, and already the anticipation is gathering for what could be one of the biggest games the Fargodome has hosted in recent times. Both teams hope to earn the MVFC a seed in the playoffs, and each hopes to claim the other as a “good win.”
October 29 carries another huge game as two more national title contenders await in the Southern Conference: the Appalachian State Mountaineers welcome the Georgia Southern Eagles to Boone, South Carolina. The Eagles were able to spoil App. State at home last season, giving them an overtime win that helped them to a playoff spot and eventual semifinalist finish, prompting the momentum that leaves the Eagles with championship ambitions. Both teams host a number of watch-list nominees for various national awards, so the game should be a late deciding factor in the SoCon and should similarly play largely into national seeding come playoff time.
For FCS favorables, how about an out-of-left-field pick of Indiana State, a team that, just a year ago at this time, seemed primed for yet another futile season? If you’re ridiculing a win over Penn State, then look further down the schedule at a matchup with the Sun Belt’s Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have found little success since moving to the Bowl Subdivision, and have had an impressively-bad number of losses on a yearly basis. Sycamore quarterback Ronnie Fouch is a transfer from Washington and was schooled against better teams than WKU has fielded, so should be able to lead his team to a potential upset that would light a fire in Terre Haute.
Russell Varner, SoCon writer at http://www.southernpigskin.com/SOCON
Many people consider the October 29 Georgia Southern-Appalachian State matchup to be the game that decides the Southern Conference championship in 2011. And why shouldn’t they? These are the two favorites to win the conference and the Eagles did beat the Mountaineers last year in a thriller in Statesboro. App has had revenge on their mind all offseason and has been waiting for this game.
But, in my opinion, October 1st and November 12th are two dates that shouldn’t be overlooked either and will be just as key to deciding the conference championship. That is when Appalachian State and Georgia Southern (respectively) visit Wofford, the dark horse to win the conference championship. The Terriers are the forgotten squad in the SoCon, though they return arguably as many key pieces as Georgia Southern and App State. The fact that they host both could give them a leg up in the SoCon title race.
If you are looking to bet on a FCS team to upset a FBS team, the Mountaineers could be a great bet when they visit Virginia Tech to start the season. App has had a good history playing the underdog role (see Michigan) and nearly beat East Carolina two years ago. They may have to travel to Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the nation, but the Hokies will be playing their first game post-Tyrod Taylor and could struggle to stop App’s spread offense.
Ben Moore, Editor Panther Talk
– Georgia Southern at Appalachian State. Both teams should enter this game undefeated in FCS play (App State has to play at Virginia Tech in Week 1) and Southern won last season in Statesboro. The winner of this game will likely clinch the SoCon title and a #1 seed in the FCS Playoffs.
– Delaware vs. UMASS. It will be UMASS’ last trip to the FCS runner up as a member before moving to the MAC in 2012. Should be a great game and the Blue Hens would certainly like to send them up with a loss.
FBS vs. FCS:
– Delaware at Navy – Navy will likely keep the score low and Delaware has had the entire offseason to prepare for the Triple Option. This one could go the way of the Blue Hens.
– Jacksonville State at Kentucky – They walked away from a 2010 date at Ole Miss and scored a huge OT victory. Why couldnt the Gamecocks do it again? For a school that has made its FBS interest public, this could absolutely be a statement game. They added UGA transfer Washaun Ealey at RB and Western Michigan WR Trey Smith to their already potent offense. This would will be fun to watch.
– Eastern Washington vs. Washington – When this game was announced back in the Fall of 2010, EWU was coming off a 8-4 season in 2009. Now they will walk into Husky stadium as the defending FCS champ and returns 15 starters and 52 letterwinners. This game is going to be very close.
JSU ’86 and JSU ’88, the guys behind Gamecock Illustrated
In the OVC, Jacksonville State and Murray State are the early favorites to be in the running for a conference championship. JSU will travel to Murray State this year for their game on October 1. Jacksonville State should be favored for this game, but the match up of JSU’s defense vs. Murray State’s offense should be fun to watch.
JSU has a new defensive coordinator in Chris Boone, and he has the defense excited and ready to play after spring practice. Murray State head coach Chris Hatcher brings an exciting brand of offense to the Racers. Keys to the game: Can JSU’s defense put pressure on Murray State Junior quarterback Casey Brockman, who has been added to the Walter Payton Award Preseason Watch List?
Eastern Kentucky could also make some noise. They beat both Murray State and Jacksonville State last season. While they are not picked to win the conference, they always seem to play well against JSU. A lack of focus by JSU or MSU when playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels could cost either team a championship.
Jacksonville State vs. Kentucky – After Jacksonville State beat Ole Miss last year in dramatic fashion, it may be hard for the Gamecocks to sneak up on anyone. We are sure Kentucky will be ready. Nonetheless, with Washaun Ealey, recently from UGA, in the backfield, JSU could be looking for another upset. Even though Kentucky will have a numbers advantage, JSU knows they can stay on the field with larger schools. This game will definitely be worth watching.
Richmond vs. Duke – We’ve heard arguments that if Duke, the FBS team, wins, it could be considered an upset.
Editor’s note: Richmond opened its 2009 campaign with a defeat of the Blue Devils.
Appalachain State vs. Virginia Tech – Va Tech was upset last year by James Madison…could it happen again? Appalachain State has had to replace some talented players, but will start the season ranked in the top 5 in FCS.