FCS Quarterfinals Preview

As FBS coaches, players and fans debate their teams’ resumes in relation to bowl games, the FCS community plows ahead determining a national champion…on the field. Following two weeks of playoff games, the FCS quarterfinal round begins Friday and continues with three more games on Saturday.

The eight remaining playoff teams finished no worse than tied for second in their respective conference standings. Six different conferences are represented this weekend. The Big Sky (Montana and Montana State) and MVC (North Dakota State University and Northern Iowa) each have two teams remaining, while one each remain from the Southland, CAA, SoCon and PFL. Following the break, we’ll analyze each matchup and predict the teams that will move on.

Northern Iowa (10-2) at Montana (10-2)

When and Where: Friday at 8PM EST in Missoula, MT

How They Got Here: The UNI Panthers finished second in the Missouri Valley Conference with its 9-2 regular season record. Its two losses were both on the road – by one point at Iowa State and by eight points at MVC champion NDSU. The Grizzlies also lost two games on the road (at Tennessee and Sacramento State) and were good enough to win the Big Sky. Last week the Panthers defeated Wofford at home, 28-21, while Montana dispatched Central Arkansas, 41-14.

Key Statistic: Northern Iowa’s red zone offense scored on 35 of 37 trips to the end zone this season (95%), though ten of those scores were field goals. Montana’s defense allowed scores on 23 of 33 red zone possessions (70%), but opponents scored touchdowns on only 16 of those 33 chances (48%). If UNI does move the ball regularly against Montana, the Grizzlies’ defense must continue its trend of keeping them out of the end zone.

Players to Watch: This game features two conference defensive players of the year. Northern Iowa is led by the MVC’s DPOY, linebacker L.J. Fort. The senior linebacker leads the country in tackles (167) while contributing 8.5 tackles-for-loss, three passes defensed and six forced fumbles.

Meanwhile the Grizzlies boast the Big Sky’s DPOY, also a senior linebacker. Caleb McSurdy posted 117 tackles this season, 40 more than the next Montana defender. Among McSurdy’s 7.5 TFL’s were 3.5 sacks, and he also recorded one interception, one fumble recovery and two forced fumbles.

Deciding Factor: Montana may have too much offense for Northern Iowa, as the Grizzlies average 90 more yards and seven more points per game. But the real difference will be the combination of Montana’s defense and the home crowd. The Grizzlies allowed less than 20 points per game, posted 93 TFL’s this season and are undefeated at home – a combination that will be too much for UNI.

Prediction: Montana 28, Northern Iowa 20

Montana State (10-2) at Sam Houston State (12-0)

When and Where: Saturday at noon EST in Huntsville, TX

How They Got Here: Following its opening-week loss to Utah, Montana State reeled off nine consecutive wins until losing to Montana in the season finale; the Bobcats finished second in the Big Sky. Last week MSU defeated New Hampshire by one point, as they blocked an extra point attempt with less than ten seconds remaining.

Sam Houston State enters the game with an undefeated record and earned the Southland Conference championship. In a tied game in the fourth quarter against Stony Brook last week, the Bearkats got a touchdown with a minute remaining to secure a 34-27 victory. Their wins include a win over New Mexico and an impressive 66-0 shutout of Lamar.

Key Statistic: Sam Houston State averages just shy of three turnovers per game, forcing 35 in twelve games (20 interceptions and 15 fumbles recovered). Having surrendered only ten turnovers themselves, the Bearkats are an astonishing plus-25 in the turnover margin. Montana State enters the game at minus-two for the season, including minus-three against New Hampshire last weekend. The Bobcats cannot turn over the ball four times in consecutive weeks and expect to advance in the playoffs.

Players to Watch: While the first matchup featured two defensive players of the year, this contest revolves around two running backs. The Bearkats average 39 points per game this season, meaning the Bobcats will have to keep SHSU’s offense off the field. First-Team Big Sky running back Cody Kirk leads MSU’s running attack with 111 yards per game and 14 touchdowns.

On the other side of the ball, Montana State will have their hands full with Tim Flanders. The Southland Conference Player of the Year leads the Bearkats in 1,235 rushing yards, 404 receiving yards and 23 total touchdowns. Ten of Flanders’ touchdowns came on runs of at least 21 yards, including four of at least 53 yards.

Deciding Factor: Four Sam Houston State defenders made the First-and-Second Southland Teams each, including Defensive POY DB Darnell Taylor. Said another way, SMSU could field eight all-conference players on defense at once. Excluding the points surrendered in its 48-45 overtime win over New Mexico, the Bearkats allowed just 121 points in its other eleven games. This level of defensive prowess may be too much for Montana State.

Prediction: Sam Houston State 37, Montana State 24

Maine (9-3) at Georgia Southern (10-2)

When and Where: Saturday at 2PM EST in Statesboro, GA

How They Got Here: Maine was one of several surprise CAA teams, finishing tied for second with an 8-3 record. The Black Bears’ three losses were to the Big East’s Pittsburgh, as well as to fellow playoff participants Towson and New Hampshire. Last week Maine ended Appalachian State’s season in Boone, winning 34-12.

While Maine’s success this season may have surprised more than a few fans, Georgia Southern’s success was expected. The team returned virtually all starters from last season’s semi-finalist team and lost only to Appalachian State and BCS Championship-participant Alabama. The Eagles survived a shootout against Old Dominion last week, 55-48, to advance to face Maine.

Key Statistic: The predominant theme of this matchup is GSU’s triple option rushing attack. The Eagles have five individuals that average between 33.7 and 77.2 rushing yards per game, and their quarterback averages 29.2/game himself.

Players to Watch: For Maine to be successful against GSU, they must control time of possession as much as possible to keep the triple option off the field. To do this, the Black Bears will rely on senior Pushaun Brown, who averaged just shy of 100 rushing yards per game with twelve total touchdowns. The Third Team All-CAA running back rushed for 111 yards against ASU last week and had 191 against Delaware earlier this season.

While any number of Georgia Southern running backs could explode for a big game (five different Eagles have at least five rushing scores), their defense is keyed by an interior defensive lineman. Defensive tackle Brent Russell was named the SoCon Defensive POY and led the Eagles in TFL’s (13.5) and sacks (6) in eleven games. The junior’s talents are so evident that he is already garnering attention from NFL scouts. Russell must lead an improved defensive effort than how GSU fared against ODU.

Deciding Factor: Georgia Southern ran for 302 yards against Alabama, which is the most the Crimson Tide had surrendered since 2004. The Eagles are running the option at a level where the only team that could stop them is themselves, with turnovers, penalties, etc. While Georgia Southern may not replicate its production of 477 rushing yards from last week, it should run well enough to defeat its second consecutive CAA opponent.

Prediction: Georgia Southern 45, Maine 23

Lehigh (11-1) at North Dakota State (11-1)

Where and When: Saturday at 4PM EST in Fargo, ND

How They Got Here: Lehigh won the Patriot Football League this season with an undefeated PFL record. Furthermore the Mountain Hawks were an overtime loss (to New Hampshire in Week Two) away from an undefeated season. Last week Lehigh posted a safety in the fourth quarter to escape with a 40-38 win on the road against Towson.

North Dakota State started its season with nine consecutive wins and subsequently secured the #1 ranking. In Week Eleven the team lost by a field goal at home to Youngstown State before finishing off Western Illinois to secure first place in the MVC. Last week the Bison defeated James Madison, 26-14, to advance to this weekend.

Key Statistic: The matchup pits two teams against each other that have dominated the second and third quarters. Over twelve games, the Mountain Hawks outscored their opponents 262-143 (average of 22-12) during the middle two quarters. Meanwhile the Bison owned the middle 30 minutes of each game by a margin of 259-92 (average of 22-8).

Players to Watch: Lehigh’s quarterback Chris Lum had one of the most productive seasons in all of FCS this season. The senior has thrown for more than 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, as Lehigh is second in the country in total yards. Such a productive year earned Lum First Team PFL honors as quarterback.

To slow down Lum and the Mountain Hawks, North Dakota State will need a consistent pass rush from Coulter Boyer. The defensive end was named to the MVC’s First Team Defense with eight sacks among his eleven TFL’s. Boyer can certainly rise to the occasion, as evidenced by his 2.5 sacks against Minnesota of the Big Ten.

Deciding Factor: Unfortunately the game has been tilted in NDSU’s favor for a reason off the field. The NCAA suspended Lehigh’s star receiver Ryan Spadola following comments attributed to his Twitter account last week. Spadola accounted for 135 of the team’s 479 offensive yards per game and scored eleven touchdowns this season. On the field, Lehigh was already facing a tough challenge against a Bison team that allows less than 15 points per game. Facing NDSU minus a top receiver makes it that much more difficult. Expect Boyer and the NDSU crowd to do just enough to stop the Mountain Hawks.

Prediction: North Dakota State 33, Lehigh 27

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