Going Out On A Limb: Independent Edition

Notre Dame Wins 10, Reaches A BCS Bowl For The First Time Since 2006

Notre Dame’s schedule is…well, it’s brutal. The Irish open with Navy in Dublin, Ireland. The Mids are UND’s least challenging game, realistically. And that’s saying something, considering Navy is a Phil Steele projected bowl team with postseason appearances every season this decade but last. The Fighting Irish return from overseas to arguably the single most difficult stretch any team faces in all of college: vs. Purdue, at Michigan and vs. Michigan. Its match-up with Purdue will be played without 1100-yard rusher Cierre Wood.

What I’m getting at is winning 10 games — the benchmark for UND to receiving a BCS invitatino — is a steep climb. It’s not an impossible climb, though. UND finished 8-5 last season, dropping decisions to Michigan, USC and Stanford in the regular season (all top 10 finishers), Florida State in the bowl game (a preseason BCS favorite) and USF (well…the Bulls head coach has UND lineage). Three of the Irish’s five losses were by a combined 11 points, while the 31-17 defeat against rival USC saw UND give away two balls in the red zone, one of which was run back for a Trojan score. In other words, Notre Dame was a few bounces of the ball away from reaching the Sugar Bowl in 2011.

Fortuitous bounces would be necessary for the Fighting Irish to get an invite to New Orleans, Glendale or Miami this go-around. The annual showdown with USC looms in late November, UND taking its every-other-year pilgrimage to Los Angeles. Notre Dame also goes to Oklahoma. Are you getting a sense of just how difficult a task 10-2 is? But it’s not all predicated on luck (Luck o’ the Irish?…I’ll show myself out). Brian Kelly has two of the best players at their specific positions in all of college football on his roster, Manti Te’o and Tyler Eifert.

Pay close attention to how Everett Golson adapts to the offense, and vice versa. Tommy Rees’ knack for untimely turnovers did in UND at times last season. Should Golson emerge as the answer UND has sough at quarterback, the Fighting Irish will be a formidable bunch.

BYU Heads To The Poinsettia Bowl With 11 Wins In Sight

BYU entered uncharted waters a season ago, yet ended up in a very familiar destination. The Cougars joined the dwindling ranks of the independent and earned their fifth 10-win season of the last six. It took a hot finish to reach No. 10, and frankly the competition that paved BYU’s way in the season’s second half was unimpressive. BYU played a schedule closer to that of New Mexico State than Notre Dame, but this season faces a more formidable slate. UND is among the upgrades BYU made from its WAC-heavy 2011 slate, as well as Georgia Tech. Both are road games. So is the final(?) installment of the Holy War, as well as the next week’s contest against Boise State. Whew.

That is a treacherous docket awaiting the Cougars, but should they break even in those four contests, a 10-win regular season is very much in reach. Despite all the excitement about Mike Leach’s return to college football, BYU has the decided advantage in Thursday’s opener. Oregon State should be improved from a season ago, but the Cougars should handle the Beavers in LaVell Edwards Stadium. That leaves several winnable games against lesser competition — with apologies to Utah State, which nearly defeated the Cougars last fall but lost several key pieces from the 2011 Idaho Potato Bowl team.

Army Ends Its Losing Streak To Navy

So one win hardly qualifies going out on a limb, unless it’s projecting say, Savannah State to beat Florida State this season. But consider West Point has not defeated its rival the Naval Academy since 2001, and envisioning a Black Knight win takes some creativity. Last season’s encounter was a classic, the first truly competitive game in the sport’s most meaningful series since Army’s last win. But like each contest since 2002, it ended in Midshipmen victory.

Quarterback Trent Steelman is poised to lead his troops to victory this time around. Steelman has rushed for 23 touchdowns in the past two seasons. In 2010 he passed for seven, an especially eye popping number in Rich Ellerson’s system. He’s a savvy option playmaker who will lead the nation’s best rushing offense against a Navy rush defense that ranked No. 92 nationally a season ago.

Navy Wins 10 Games

Based on these scenarios, the Naval Academy is doomed to book-ending its regular season in losses. That would seemingly relegate the Mids to also-ran status; an understandable choice after their disappointing 5-7 finish a season ago. But what if those were the Midshipmen’s only losses? Consider that in seven defeats a year ago, five were by a combined 11 points. As discussed in context of Notre Dame above, change a few bounces for the Mids and it’s Navy’s third 10-win campaign since 2002.

Ten wins this year is certainly plausible, even if the two above UND and Army scenarios play out. Navy plays a varied schedule, albeit one less ambitious than it has faced in recent seasons. After returning home from Ireland, Navy gets a bye before traveling to Penn State. The Nittany Lions flourished on a powerful rush defense a season ago and despite suffering notable depletion, do return Jordan Hill. The most comparable offense to Navy’s that PSU faced last season was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers went for 188 yards on 48 carries. Navy must surpass the 200-yard rushing plateau to have a change against the Nittany Lion, but the rest of the schedule is less contingent on such a stringent necessity.

East Carolina, Air Force and San Jose State are all on the slate. All beat Navy a season ago — by a combined touchdown-and-PAT.