Navy upsets Houston, ends College Football Playoff dreams

Entering Week 6, Houston had high hopes of contending for a College Football Playoff bid. Now they will have to scramble just to win their conference.

It was bound not to be easy for Houston when they traveled to Annapolis on Saturday to face Navy. The Midshipmen had lost to Air Force the previous week, but still remained right in the American Athletic Conference hunt. The rain was falling after Hurricane Matthew made landfall further south down the eastern seaboard, and it set the scene for a major upset of a top-ten team.

Through the first half, the game looked far more even than Tom Herman would have liked. Houston got the first points of the game after forcing Navy to punt on their opening drive, but the Midshipmen had a response every time. It looked like the Cougars would take a lead into the locker room at halftime, leading 20-17 and driving in Navy territory with less than three minutes remaining. Then Greg Ward Jr. threw an interception, and the hosts converted it into a late field goal on the last play of the half.

Houston at least had the ball to begin the second half. Then Greg Ward Jr. got lackadaisical with his ball control, coughing up two turnovers that completely swung the momentum toward the Middies. After spotting Navy a 34-20 lead midway through the third quarter, the Cougars were playing catchup the rest of the contest. Each Houston touchdown was answered by a Navy score.

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The Cougars scored a touchdown to cut the lead to eight, but the Midshipmen got a hand on the extra point. Everything seemed to be going the way of the hosts. Houston stuffed Navy on fourth and one in the red zone to keep themselves alive with six and a half minutes left. After going three-and-out, a high snap gave Navy a safety and a 10-point lead. Everything the Middies did turned into gold, it seemed, and Houston could do nothing right.

Ward found Chance Allen for a touchdown on fourth and 12 with 1:57 remaining, but a failed onside kick dampened Houston’s hopes. They got the ball back with nine seconds remaining, but it proved too little too late. The end result was a 46-40 upset that placed Navy and not Houston firmly atop the AAC West standings. The Cougars will surely plummet down the AP Top 25 after suffering their first defeat of the season. Navy will likely move up in the polls as a result.

Now the question becomes whether Tom Herman has any reason to remain in Houston after this season. Had the Cougars contended for a College Football Playoff spot, he would have had incentive to remain with this team moving forward. But with all the high-profile jobs due to open up around the country this year, Herman will be able to pick and choose from his many suitors. Is there any reason to remain at a program where only perfection will merit a shot at a national championship?

After all, while other teams will surely get their shot to contend for the College Football Playoff despite suffering a regular-season loss, that opportunity will never be extended to a mid-major school. This loss probably isn’t as damning as the upset to Connecticut last season, but Houston still knocked themselves out of the top ten and are unlikely to return even if they run the table from here. And the CFP bracket is completely out of reach.

Houston still has to play out the rest of this year, of course, and there is still plenty on the table. The Cougars are now behind in the AAC West standings, but they could still win the conference. They need Navy to lose at least once (and more likely twice) and can not lose again themselves. Only a Group of Five conference champion has a shot at even qualifying for a New Year’s Six bowl. Houston’s fate isn’t entirely in their own hands, but a path is still open for the Cougars to remain relevant in 2016.